The markets will be closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day and reopen Monday evening at 7:00 p.m.
Grain futures are firmer this morning, with corn and soybeans finding a bounce overnight as the Buenos Aires Exchange on Thursday afternoon released their crop ratings, and the soy crop was rated at a low 32% good/excellent versus 49% last week and 40% a year ago. The corn rating were at 39% good/excellent versus 42% last week and 46% last year. Price response was minimized with the forecast of rain developing over the coming weekend and early next week.
Complete dryness continues for another 24 hours before meaningful pattern change starts to occur. Showers begin late Saturday as an organized rainfall front starts to impact all but the far northern Argentine areas on Sunday-Monday, with Kim with totals of 1-inch plus to favor key areas of Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios. The EU model this morning features additional rain across Córdoba and Santa Fe in the second half of next week as more soaking rains are anticipated to develop through the 10-day window. This should help minimize Argentine production losses.
Other weather news has another cold sweep blanketing most of the Central US during the first half of next week. Light snowfall is anticipated in Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and far W Kansas before the blast, but areas of NE, SD, and central KS are likely to be barren as lows drop to or below zero Monday through Wednesday. There will be winterkill concerns, but with adequate stocks, price response looks limited. Still, damage is possible.
Live and feeder cattle prices tumbled yesterday morning but recovered moderately into the close. Early session losses were tied to news that the return of Mexican feeder cattle looks to be on track, as progress is occurring, clearing the way to designate feeders cut worm free. The negotiated fed cattle trade on Thursday was similar to Wednesday, with dressed sales in the north at $322, while live sales in the South were $200-201. This was steady at $1 higher from last week. Box beef values were mixed with the choice off $0.73 and select gained $1.34.
Beef cow slaughter rates started to slow in early 2024 and fell to multi-year lows in the last half of the year. Slaughter since September was down 27% from a year ago and has been the lowest in nine years. The January Cattle Inventory report at the end of the month will be important to see changes in the beef cow and heifer inventories. February cattle continue to remain well below cash prices and has chart support at 191-193.