Bitter cold temperatures mildly support wheat values overnight.

The grain trade is mixed this morning, with corn and soybeans moving lower while the wheat trade maintains a firm tone. Export sales are softening now for soybeans, and with the improved outlook of South American crops, price biasing is now pointing down for beans. Corn continues into its sideways grind since peaking in late January, while the wheat trade is finding strength after a four-day decline, as the concerns of winterkill again become a discussion for the HRW wheat belt and Russian wheat areas.

Brazil’s CONAB (their version of the USDA) estimated their 2025 bean crop at 166 MTs, with their yield dropping 3.5 MMTs/HA (51.9 BPA) with planted area rising to 47.45 Mil HA. They raised their corn crop estimate to 1 run to 2.02 MMTs, supported by a gain in the seeded area of 2% 21.19 Mil HA. Like last year, the USDA is always higher on the Brazilian crop than CONAB. Industry average expectations for the Brazilian bean crop are 171 MMT or higher.

Bitter cold temperatures are falling across the Plains, with some snow on the ground. Kansas low temps were in the single digits, down to 15 below. The cold looks to worsen into the weekend, with lows 20-30° below average. This is mildly supporting wheat futures this morning after a four-day price decline. However, this is not too optimistic, as the cold is not a surprise to the board.

USDA ag secretary nominee Brooke Rollins and US health secretary nominee Robert F Kennedy Jr. are expected to be confirmed today by the U.S. Senate. US agriculture is waiting to see Sen. Kennedy's plan regarding HFCS and seed oils in the American diet. Ms. Rollins has Trump’s ear, which is hoped to act as a buffer for US farmers.

This morning’s export sales numbers were favorable for wheat and corn but negative for soybeans. Wheat sales were 569,600 MTs, up 45% from the prior four-week average, and were up from their poor performance at the start of the year. Corn was at 1,649,000 MTs, up 20% from its four-week average. Meanwhile, soybeans were at 185,500 MT and down 74% from the four-week average.

South American forecasts looked to remain favorable as the soybean harvest is in full swing in northern Brazil, with the seeding of winter corn accelerating. Argentina and Southern Brazil are seeing more rains in the forecast, with the heat in Argentina breaking today to a more seasonal temperature outlook. Overnight showers occurred again across Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil, with the 11-15 day forecast offering showers back in the northern half of Brazil.

Live and feeder cattle put in a mixed performance on Wednesday and what was a very quiet trade. Limited cash trade continued at midweek with live sales in the South off $3-4 for the week at $202-203. Thin-dressed trade was reported in Nebraska at $320 and was $7 lower from last week. Cattle slaughter at midweek totaled 337,000 head, off 21,000 from last week and 25,000 head fewer than a year ago.

Packers look to be cutting slaughter rates as estimated margins have fallen sharply in early 2025 and are well below average for early February. Based on early week cattle sales at $203 and Wednesdays beef quotes, estimated slaughter margins are at a $19/head loss. It’s the lowest weekly margin since 2017. Packers are looking to back up the cattle inventory and tighten the beef inventory to wide margins.