The February WASDE crop report is out at 11:00 a.m. CT today.

The grain trade was mostly higher overnight, led by wheat. Concerns are growing that the Black Sea region will soon see a severe cold snap with little to no snow cover protection. Short covering was also seen in corn and soybeans ahead of today’s WASDE crop report at 11:00. Given the friendly December and January reports, traders are keenly aware that the USDA could raise corn ethanol demand by 25 Mil Bu and adjust corn and soybean exports higher.

Pres. Trump’s tariffs of 25% on imported steel and aluminum were put in place on Monday, including all steel and aluminum suppliers on Mexico and Canada on March 12 if they do not have their matters settled during the cooling period. Later this week the reciprocal tariffs are intended to go against nations that carry VAT taxes and tariffs on the US.

The French Ag Ministry reported that farmers used late autumn dryness to harvest 10% more wheat than last year, which was .4% above the 5-year average at 4.57 Mil HA. Excessive rainfall returned to the soils in January, but less rain during February appears to have improved crop conditions.

In today’s WASDE crop report, expectations are for the corn ending stocks to decline to 1.521 Bil Bu, down from 1.540 in January, soybeans at 376 Mil Bu, off from 380 in January, while wheat stocks near unchanged at 801 Mil Bu versus 798. Argentine corn and soybean production is anticipated to be lowered by 2 MMTs each for corn and soybeans.

In South America, needed rainfall is falling in Buenos Aires, starting a much wetter Argentine weather pattern for the next several weeks. Storm systems look to produce 2-5.50″ of rainfall over the next two weeks and what is becoming a significant weather pattern shift. Meanwhile, needed drying in northern and central Brazil will help us celebrate the soybean harvest so the wind of their corn crop can get planted. At this time, it looks like the threshold of 90% planted by March 5 may not make it.

On Monday, a recovery rally was experienced for live and feeder cattle futures with a firm start anticipated this morning. Losses on futures are still significant compared to the Minard drift of cash cattle prices last week. Cattle slaughter last week totaled 584,000 head, down 16,000 for the week and 32,000 less than a year ago. The average carcass weight of 876 pounds is 47 pounds heavier than a year ago. Meanwhile, box beef values were higher on Monday, with Choice picking up $1.63 at $323.50/CWT. Select gained $1.02 at $313.92/CWT.

April cattle held trendline support and should at least find a recovery back to the 200-201 price range, where resistance will start to pick up again. March feeders have resistance on their recovery at 270.50-271.50.