Soybeans and corn retreat while wheat maintains yesterday's strong gains.

This morning’s grain trade has soybeans on retreat, with corn following, while wheat tries to maintain strength. Wednesday saw huge capital inflows in the grain market in open interest, which showed corn jumping 33,428 contracts to a new all-time record of 2,013,448. Soybean open interest was up 11,530 contracts, while wheat was off 4693 contracts despite its large gains. The total open interest surge on Wednesday was 46,989 contracts. This produced a lot of new players into the marketplace as we get to the last day of the month.

The grain trade continues to see the managed money interested in adding to corn longs, similar to their adding to shorts when the trade was wondering why they were pressing it excessively lower. Managed money uses Algo rhythm trading that just senses weakness or strength and continues to roll with it. At some point, an air bubble will be found. Total grain futures open interest is approaching the record levels of 2018 and early 2021.

Soybean meal values continued to decline on abundant supply. Gulf FOB soybean meal is offered at $were sick/MT under, Brazil is $15/under, while Argentina meal is $9/MT under. Actual cash trades are being offered below FOB prices as exporters seek importer demand.
The Senate confirmed Leah Zeldin to head the EPA in a 56-42 vote on Wednesday. As a congressman for New York, Zeldin was critical of biofuels and biofuel subsidies, which are likely to be under economic scrutiny from DOGE. The EIA will update November's US biofuel feedstock and plant capacity on Friday. The report is expected to confirm rising US soy oil usage for green diesel production. Less known is usage rates in January as credit subsidy rates have yet to be announced and confirmed by the Trump administration.

A few showers fell across Buenos Aires this past weekend, and needed rainfall of .5-2.00″ is anticipated next week from Monday into Thursday. Meanwhile, Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil are drier with the trend of continued below-normal rainfall. Temperatures will range in the 90s to lower 100s into Tuesday and then ease to seasonal levels. The forecast continues to cry Wolf for good rains, and eventually, they should arrive. However, the market is well supported as it concerns itself with the failure of near-term forecasts validating with the longer-term models, which keep promising.

Live and feeder cattle futures tumbled yesterday after feeder cattle made new contract highs and put in an outside-day lower trade (a higher high followed by a lower low than the previous day and a lower close than the previous day’s low), a very damaging technical signal that has consistently warned of further potential losses after a rally has stalled. Light cash trade started on Wednesday with a small number in Kansas at $205, which was $3 higher than last week, and sales in Texas were also up $3 at $ 204. Total volumes were thin, and asking prices were quoted at $210 in the South. Better interest is expected later today, but the cash market tone remains higher despite the correction in futures on Wednesday.

Cattle slaughter at midweek was 362,000, off 1000 from last week and 12,000 head fewer than a year ago. Box beef prices corrected with choice off $1.91 and select $1.29 lower. Volatility is now increasing as higher levels are pursued and eyebrows are raised every day about how high the cash market is. The fears are constantly represented by the discount to cash, also shown by the large discount that fourth-quarter futures are carrying to the cash market of $14/15.