New recovery highs were found overnight, with selling developing late in the morning.

This morning’s grain trade is again higher, though soybeans have relaxed about a dime off of overnight highs. Friday’s yield drop came from the NAS S adjusting seed moisture back to 15-15.5% in corn and 13-13.5% in soybeans on its operational fields. Meanwhile, producers report that the yield reflected what their combined monitor and weight tickets showed. US farmers did not adjust for seed moisture loss, which caused the US corn and soybean yields to decline. It’s another lesson learned for the USDA in their yield sampling to consider a parched late Midwest weather event.

The strong surge in recent pricing will again move cash grain across the country, rewarding with cash sales on the rally will stall the present advance, but rains must be assured in Argentina next week before a more sustained setback can occur. Meanwhile, details are still being sorted out in the Z45 guidance released by the US Treasury Department last Friday, along with Pres. Trump’s inauguration and whether it is a short-term or long-term trade adjustment (war) achieved early or later with China.

Intense heat is occurring in Argentina in the upper 90s to lower 100s, with a chance of rain showers anticipated by late this week. Those rain showers must become more than just passing isolated events. The best rainfall is in the 10-15 day forecast at totals of .5-2.00″. Currently, coverage is anticipated to be 40-50% of the crop area. In the three-week forecasting, which is very unreliable, it’s expected that Argentina will find improved weather.

On Friday, live and feeder cattle futures maintained a higher close on the day and the week. February live cattle ended the week at the highest price in September 2023, and nearby futures finished at a record high. The feeder cattle market set contract highs across the board, with nearby futures setting another record high while the cash index gained nearly $13 for the week to a record high of $ 279. Last week’s negotiated fed cattle trade was higher in all regions, with live trade in the north at $204-205 and dressed sales at $ 320. Live sales in the South are at $ 200-201 and compared to a year ago, live sales are $29-30 higher.

Cattle slaughter last week jumped 83,000 head to 589,000 head, 44,000 head more than a year ago. The average carcass weight of 872 pounds was 34 pounds heavier than a year ago. Box beef prices were sharply higher on the week, with Choice gaining $7.60 and Select jumping $17.42. The market's focus is to find a price that dramatically cuts both our domestic and export demand, with imports continuing to become a focus at a record pace.