A firm start is anticipated for the first trading day of the new year.

The first trading day of 2025 indicates a firmer start. French milling wheat gained at $1.50/MT overnight, prompting calls of 1-2 cents higher for corn and wheat, while soybeans are indicated 2-4 cents higher on the continued dry forecast for Argentina. What keeps soybeans from being sharply higher is that the Brazilian crop will be record-large and eventually come online, and the world will have soybean availability.
Malaysian February palm oil futures picked up 133 ringgits to 4448 ringgits/MT as the Indonesian government has yet to define B40 blend specification/domestic allocations. Indonesia did not implement the B40 mandatory blend as of January 1, causing policy confusion among palm oil producers and traders.

China's stock market fell by 2.6% overnight, its worst yearly start since 2016. China’s 10-year treasury note yield dropped to a record low of 1.65%. China’s economic stimulus has been far too limited to boost consumer demand. The Lunar New Year holiday starts in 28 days, and consumer spending will be restrained.

The South American forecast remained consistent, with below-normal rain falling across Argentina over the next ten days. Soil moisture will be on the decline as rainfall will not offset soil moisture evaporation. Even though several chances of showers exist over Argentina for the next ten days, the rain coverage is less than 30-40% of the crop area, with amounts in the .1-.8″ range.

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher on Tuesday, and a firm outlook is anticipated this morning as outside markets are higher across the board. No cash markets have yet traded, but the Packers have yet to show interest in trading. Initial asking prices are $1-3 higher than last week. Box beef values drifted on Tuesday with choice cutout down $1.15 and select was $0.24 lower. Both values did in the year at a record price and will start the new year at a record. February live cattle are now $2 under the cash market, while summer cattle futures are at multi-year discounts to the present cash trade. Fed cattle and beef supplies are tight in early 2025, which looks to underpin both the cash and futures market here on any early-your corrections. Fed live cattle have strong support at $186, while the target $195 to the upside.