Overnight weather forecast for Argentina return concerning.
Grain futures are higher this morning, with soybeans leading the advance after a soft overnight performance. Light showers occurred over southern Argentina overnight, producing some light rains, but the forecasts for Argentina continue to show near to below-normal rainfall over the next week. Temperatures rise into the 90s after January 2, so soybean meal continues its advance, leading soybeans higher.
Wheat prices are higher again as Egypt likely has another 700,000 MTs of purchases for spring needs. They typically state they don’t need any more wheat right before tendering. Last week, they said they were likely done procuring for the spring needs ahead of their harvest but only acquired 500,000 MTs of Russian wheat.
French milling wheat is pushing to resistance, continuing its recovery trends after making lows in early December. It is currently up $2.00/MT at 234.75 this morning. Corn is also advancing this morning as index funds continue to add to their length heading into the new year, anticipating a friendly January 10 crop report that may find a carryout below 1.7 Bil Bu.
Brazilian weather maintains favorable conditions for a crop of over 170 MT in size, but Argentine weather is becoming concerning. There are two rain chances across Argentina in the next 10 days, but 10-day rainfall totals may only range from.20-1.00″ without widespread coverage. Showers will occur, but coverage remains disappointing.
Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher to end last week, with a firm start anticipated this morning. The cash trade firmed late last week, and March feeders closed at their best weekly close since early July. Most of last week’s trade occurred on Friday, with live trade in the north at $195-196, steady-$1 higher, while dressed sales were $1 higher at $307. Live sales in the South picked up $1-2 and were at $192-193, setting record prices in Texas and Kansas.
Box beef values last week were sharply higher, with the choice gaining $6.53, led by a nearly $29 rally in the rib primal. Select gained $5.22. Both grades of beef are at record prices for the end of the year. Extremely cold weather enters the feedlot states within a week and will impede cattle performance. The heavy cattle have helped maintain beef supplies, but that can be put at risk over the next two weeks. Live and feeder cattle look to push higher into the new year after breaching technical resistance on the charts.