Grains are lower due to the lack of further Chinese stimulus.

This morning’s grain trade is lower across the board, as overnight strength faded after China did not offer another round of aggressive economic stimulus following the return from Golden Week Holiday. China’s head of the National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on fresh economic stimulus, creating the volatility seen in the grain trade last night between 8 and 9 PM CT. The commodity market's recent strength was partially tied to China finally going to an aggressive stimulus for its economy, which would boost consumer demand. China has provided some stimulus, but at levels that will not encourage consumer buying. It is anticipated that China might still announce more stimulus, but it is doubtful that it will occur ahead of the US November 5 presidential elections. Last night’s lack of announcements caused crude oil, metals, and the ag sector prices to decline, with oil tumbling $3.00 off the evening price high of 78.46.

As of Sunday, 47% of the soybean crop and 30% of corn have been harvested. NASS also reported that the winter wheat crop was 51% planted and 25% emerged. This Friday’s stock data's average trade guess is wheat at 819 Mil Bu, corn at 1,962 Mil Bu, and 549 Mil Bu for soybeans. Corn and wheat would be lower than the September report. The wildcard for the stocks numbers is whether the corn yield will move far from 183.6 BPA and soybeans from 53.2 BPA. The average yield guesses hugging last month’s report opens up the prospects of a surprise.

Brazilian farmers are turning confident in their wet forecast and are now starting to plant their new soybean crop, with progress accelerating into mid-October. The improving Brazilian weather caps the recent soybean rally, as the trade awaits progress that a record 169 MMT bean crop can be produced.

After having spent much of the war leaving ports and cargo ships relatively unscathed, we have seen an uptick in attacks on infrastructure and merchant vessels by Russia over the last month. Yesterday, after the close, news broke that Russia had hit its second ship in as many days, taking life and leaving five other crew members wounded. This was in response to Ukraine hitting a major oil depot in Crimea the night before. The two countries say they want to find a way to end the war, but at this point, both seem to feel that a major escalation is the only way to accomplish that.

The short covering from index funds in the grain trade is mainly done, and now there is a prospect that rain in South America is improving. With the EU deforestation legislation on delay and China failing to bump up its economic stimulus package at this time, soybeans will soften in price into November while wheat and corn seek out their demand for further price strength.

The Midwest is mostly dry for the next 10-12 days, with temperatures above normal. Showers are possibly noted for the Plains/W Midwest in the 11-15 day window with freezing temperatures developing around October 15. Hurricane Milton was downgraded slightly to a cat 4 storm as it brushed the Yucatán Peninsula with 140-168 mph winds. Milton has slowed its forward trajectory is forecast to make landfall at 1 AM Thursday near Tampa as a category three or four hurricane. A storm surge of 12-15′ is predicted, with evacuations currently underway.

Yesterday's live and feeder cattle trade was higher with the mixed outlook offered this morning. October cattle tested $188, the highest price since late July as it entered delivery. Feeder cattle futures were a bit lower nearby, but deferred’ s had $1.80-2.55 gains in the first half of 2025. The cash feeder Index gained $0.70 to $247.48.

The early week outlook for cash is still at a standstill and is anticipated steady. Last week, Packers bought 59,003 and 56 head on negotiated basis which was the lowest in six weeks. There was 48,007 48 head booked for 1-14 day delivery and 10,608 head for 15-30 day delivery. The five-area purchases last week were mostly higher in all types. Formula sales at $293.49 were up $3 for the week and unchanged from year ago. Forward contracts sales were $4 higher for the weekend $23 higher from last year. December live cattle are up against resistance which should be formal at $188-190. It will take a strong box beef trade and cash cattle trade to get December through the summer highs.