Markets are set for a noon-time close today.

Merry Christmas Eve Day! A thin holiday trade greets the overnight session, with the market fluctuating from both sides of unchanged. Trade thins out as it prepares for a 12:05 p.m. CT close for grains today and a 12:15 settlement for livestock. Markets reopen at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

A record-managed money short position is still in soymeal and a sizable net short in wheat. Many wonder if short covering will continue into the end of the tax year on these two, as seen in soybeans and corn. Russian FOB wheat has gained $2.00/MT into the holidays and is now $239/MT. French milling wheat is closed for the Christmas Eve day holiday.

Russia has announced it will target China for additional ag commodity exports, including grains and oilseeds. China’s demand for corn and wheat has been slowing all year, with crop-year wheat imports being just 3.3 MMTs to date.

The Brazilian real is back tumbling and near record lows, with values of 6.2:1 to the US dollar this morning. The dollar is trading near 108.00 and looks to remain strong into the new year, with US economic outlooks and tax extensions remaining positive.

Beneficial rain fell in some areas of Argentina overnight, accumulating .3-1.50″. A pattern of 5-6-day spats of cool/dry weather heads before the chances arrive next week.

Live cattle futures settled lower yesterday in the nearby contracts while feeder cattle gained. Negotiated fed markets are expected to hold off until after Christmas. It’s anticipated that Packers are short on inventory, but slaughter next week will again be reduced. The markets are balancing tight supplies against lower Packer demand. We have the lowest feeder cattle inventory since NASS reporting was available in 1992 and slightly the tightest inventory since the 1960s. The January cattle report and the annual inventory number on January 31 will be highly sought after for more insight. Critical support for February live cattle is 185.90-186.25.