The French milling wheat continues climbing.

The markets are mixed this morning, with wheat and corn trading slightly higher, while beans are trading lower. March is at a new fall low after trying to trade higher overnight. Today marks the start of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve this year, with a rate decision and subsequent 25 basis point cut expected tomorrow.

Corn futures are eyeing Congress for the enactment of E15 in the US fuel supply year-round, which would be attached to the extension of the 2018 farm bill. There are only days for Congress to work before they adjourn for the holidays. E15 is already available in 31 states and 3000 gasoline stations and is approved for vehicles newer than 2001. An E15 year-round allowance would increase US corn consumption by 20-40 Mil Bu. The E15 legislation is mostly applied to the current WASDE corn ethanol grind estimate.

Russian FOB wheat is up $1/MT to $236/MT. Meanwhile, French milling wheat is gaining another $2.00/MT today to $235.50/MT. World wheat millers are extending coverage the first quarter due to expected reductions in Russian offers on their updated quotas.

Soybean crush figures for November released by the National Oilseed Processors Association were record high for the month but slightly below trader expectations and below what is needed to meet current USDA crush projections. Soybean oil stocks again surprised traders by coming in lower than expected and well below both levels a year ago and the average for the month.

There is an ongoing debate about soybean oil stock figures, with some traders saying the continuously low stock levels we are seeing have more to do with a glitch in the data as we transport supplies than actual low inventories. Others argue that while in-transit figures may skew the data slightly, the low supplies indicate great domestic and export demand.

Ukraine has claimed responsibility for the assassination of a high ranking Russian general in Moscow. This is one of the highest profile targeted killings of a Russian leader on Russian soil since the start of the war. Russia’s response so far has been somewhat muted, though we are continuing to see them make relatively rapid advances on the frontline with the aid of North Korean forces. In addition to moves on the frontline, we are hearing more about power disruptions causing issues with grain shipments. Russia has made damaging energy infrastructure in Western Ukraine a top priority over the past several months, taking down a significant portion of the grid in a handful of recent attacks.

Live and feeder cattle futures had seen a burst of buying early in the session and violently reversed and closed lower in an Outside-day technical fashion. A weaker opening is anticipated this morning. Negotiated fed cattle markets were characteristically quiet at the beginning of the week, with trading interest expected towards the end of the week, which could occur after Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.
Last week, the Packers bought 77,128 head on a negotiated basis, with 52,132 for 1-14 day delivery and 24,996 for 15-30 day delivery.

Negotiated purchases for the last five weeks, have been above a year ago. The negotiated volume for the year of 3.7 million head is down 4% from a year ago and at a record low. Negotiated volume has accounted for 17.7% of all cattle transactions, which is also a record low. With index funds holding a historically sizeable long position, this could create further volatile swings as we head into the year's end, when the bias usually remains higher in price.