US port strike ends, and job numbers are better than expected.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed. Wheat and corn continued yesterday's selloff, while soybeans firmed on spread trading and bean oil, having followed crude oil higher overnight until the jobs data came out this morning. The US dollar firmed after 7:30 this morning, trading above 102.00, as the jobs number was much stronger than expected, conveniently ahead of the election. The jobs number posted a gain of 254,000 versus an estimate of 144,000. The unemployment rate was lowered to 4.1%. Metals are lower, interest rates are a bit higher, and crude oil drifts off the overnight highs on the firm dollar. This may pause the Federal Reserve from lowering rates another quarter percent at the next policy meeting later this month.

Several small developments in the world cash market helped spur yesterday's wheat sell-off. Some of the more bullish traders had been hopeful we would see Turkey announce their return to the market as importers once their import ban comes to an end on October 15th. Officials there did announce that they will open the door to imports once again, but with a slew of restrictions and requirements for millers to adhere to, including an 85/15 domestic/import blend for their products.

The restrictions and large supplies of previously imported wheat in reserves for millers to buy will likely reduce Turkey’s overall purchases in the year ahead, helping to offset some of the loss of Russian supplies in the world balance sheet. In addition to more clarity regarding what to expect from Turkey, we are getting a better understanding of what led to rumors Egypt’s wheat buying arm had sourced over 3 million metric tons of wheat. Cash traders had denied the story, saying nothing in basis, spreads, or freight indicated that large of a chunk had been traded, and it appears they are right. According to The Fryers Report, it seems Egypt has struck a deal with a global grain trading firm to help better source supplies and manage logistics. Russian FOB wheat is now offered at $229/MT, off $1.00/MT from Thursday. December milling wheat is off $5/MT this morning to 227 in a correction as traders work out whether Egypt’s secured Russian wheat in a private deal.

As you heard, the US port worker strike ended after a tentative agreement on wages. The Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement said all sides came together, and the workers would get a 62% wage increase over the next six years. Both sides of extending the current contract will keep negotiating into January 15(after the US elections) to finalize a new deal, which still has to work out the phasing of automation in.

Showers did dot a portion of northern Brazil overnight as the wet season wants to get underway. The forecast models have some rain showers starting Tuesday and then start to develop more from October 9 forward. The monsoonal flow of the Northern Brazilian rain will be spotty until late next week when a much wetter flow returns. Once this monsoon is established, then there will be a chance of daily showers across N Brazil. As La Niña develops, dryness concerns will not arrive until the first quarter of 2025 across Argentina, when they require a dominance of rain.

The overnight weather forecast has added some rain for Ukraine, which has been overwhelmed by drought for the past four months. The prospect of .5-2.00 of rain will be timely for winter wheat seeding, with hints of rain returning across W Russia in the 11-15 day window. The Black Sea forecast over the next week will dominate wheat trade.

Live cattle trade is consolidated its midweek gains on Thursday as feeder cattle were weaker nearby while deferred’ s were higher. This morning’s Jobs number may offer a firm start for the cattle trade. Meanwhile, the cash trade is at a standstill following some light trade on Wednesday. Bids were quoted in the north at $294 dressed, which is steady with last week, while live offers in the South are at $187, reflecting a gain of $2. Allocating and in the week is for steady-$2 higher.

Box beef prices were slightly lower on Thursday, with choice down a penny, and select was off $0.64. Both values are still higher on the week. Heifer slaughter as a percentage of total Fed cattle kill was elevated in the first half of the year has fallen below last year in June and remade light in September. The kill percentage has risen recently and is at a 20-week high in late September. The October COF report will offer better insight into heifer retention, but herds are likely being rebuilt at a very modest pace. December cattle are right between resistance and support. Support is 182, with resistance at 189.