European Commission may delay the implementation of EUDR.

This morning’s grain trade is broadly mixed. Corn and wheat are higher, while soybeans sink on news that the European Commission might delay its implementation of EUDR by 12 months (prohibiting buying from areas utilizing the four station practices) and improving prospects of rain for Brazil in the October 10-11 window.

Wheat firmed overnight further as French milling wheat advanced another two dollars/MT, pushing wheat to a new multi-month high. Corn firmed with wheat but lost ground in the morning hours due to the weakness in soybeans.

For Russia, time is running short to get the winter wheat seated in the Black Sea region prior to closing of the optimal planting windows in early November. It will create germination and early crop establishment, which are issues that they experience in the cold winters. Subsoil moisture today is insufficient in all but Western Ukraine and the northern fringe of the winter grain-producing regions in Russia. The key wheat-producing areas of SE Ukraine in SW Russia have seen only 12-40% of average rainfall since July 1.

The South American forecast looks for rainfall to expand across Central and Northern Brazil beginning October 10-11, and this rain must fall. The arrival of the Brazilian monsoon will allow for rapid soy seeding in the second half of October if it falls through. This is much later than normal, but trend yields can still be very attainable. If they continue, delayed plantings will be more of a concern for the safrinha corn production next spring. The European Commission delayed by possibly 12 months the incoming EU to four station regulation, which was currently scheduled to take effect in 2025, targets the import of products from Brazil and SE Asia. Soybean meal futures have taken the news the worst this morning.

The Midwest forecast remains consistent with dryness throughout the Midwest into October 15. This implies a modest expansion of the Plains drought through the period. The less reliable 16-30 day guidance this morning still keeps in place a pattern of dryness and normal to above-normal temperatures.

Cattle futures pushed higher Tuesday, while feeder cattle were a bit lower again on the higher corn prices. Cash markets remain at a standstill, with no bids or offers quoted. Interest should start to pick up today, with active trade on Thursday or Friday. For now, the outlook remains firm. Packers were successful in moving beef prices higher in the first part of the week, and values are expected to continue moving up.

On Tuesday, the choice cutout value gained $2.09 to $300.17, while select was up $0.77 at $were to 85.30. Last week, the choice value dipped below $300 for the first week since early May. With margins deep in the red and feedlots unable to sell lower prices, the Packers are expected to be aggressive in increasing beef prices in the coming weeks. December live cattle have support at $181-182 with upside targets at resistance of 187-188.