Post-crop report action is mixed this morning.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed with wheat firmer while row crops soften post stocks data from Monday. Wheat is firming as Russian FOB wheat rallies have risen to $222/MT for November, helping support the wheat trade, which still carries premiums to Russian values. Meanwhile, soybeans softened on weather models that consistently offered needed rain across Northern Brazil after October 7. That forecast is wetter this morning, with the monsoon slightly delayed. Corn is absorbing new farmer selling from the recent spike, as the gut slot of harvest lies ahead.

The US Longshoreman Union went on strike early Tuesday, causing numerous snarls on the East Coast and Gulfport as ship unloading came to a halt. Container trade will be the most impacted, with bulk grain loading from the Gulf or PNW largely unaffected.

Yesterday, NASS reported that 21% of the corn and 24% of the soybean crop had been harvested, which aligns with historical averages. Meanwhile, 39% of the US wheat crop had been planted versus 38% last year. Active US harvest is now ahead, and with the South American weather pattern improving, this will become a drag on the recent lift in row crop prices. Russian dryness is now the nearby bull story for wheat, as acreage could become reduced for the winter wheat crop as farmers may choose to wait on spring moisture and take a chance on spring crops.

The Midwest forecast has no rain falling across the US except the NE US over the next two weeks. A dry weather forecast will allow the Midwest harvest to push ahead quickly, while winter wheat planting delays will be noted across the Plains. The acute dryness will cause issues with wheat seed germination. Temperatures will hold near too much above normal levels throughout the next 10 days, with highs ranging from the 60s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will hold in the 40s/50s with seasonally low humidity levels.

Yesterday, live cattle traded firm while feeder cattle were softer under pressure from the advancing corn market. The cash feeder Index started the week higher by $1.71 at an eight-week high of $247.24. Packers this week are fighting negative margins and looking to either move beef prices higher by cattle cheaper. Feedlots are also struggling with their own negative closeouts, given tight supplies, will resist lower prices. The early outlook for late-week trade ranges from steady to $2 higher.

Yesterday, box beef values closed higher, with Choice picking up $1.39 and Select gaining $2.45, holding out optimism for better beef prices this week. Estimated slaughter margins as measured by the live-to-cutout spread fell $37/head last week to $35/head. This marked the third consecutive week lower and the lowest for September since 2014. December live cattle have held firm above all moving averages now for six days and have now developed support in the 181-182 range on setbacks.