The US dollar is up 2% on a Pres. Trump victory.

Grains turned lower last night early as it became apparent that President Trump was on his way to another win. By 8 o’clock, the US dollar was moving sharply higher, gaining almost 2%. This put pressure on energies and metals, along with the grains. The Trump trade is now trying to exert its pressure, seeing if it can push price lows made on October 30.

Pres. Trump’s victory was ensured when Pennsylvania was declared for Trump in the middle of the night. Trump increased support from 2020 through rural America, with minority voters like Hispanics and African Americans turning out historical percentages for a Republican. The Trump victory is being digested by world markets, with the Dow up over 1100 points and gold off $80. Crude is lower by $2.00, trading near 70.00.

The grain trade now will closely follow US export sales to gauge if importers fear new US tariffs in January and desire to see your cure grain/soybeans elsewhere where pricing is assured. In particular, China will likely secure additional South American soybeans and corn in the weeks ahead amid the potential for a second US-Chinese/trade war. This trade war has already seen the lifting of the first Trump administration, so one would anticipate that China will be quicker this time, given that its economic standing is not what it was in 2018.

Another implication of a Trump victory that has many discussing the Russian/Ukrainian war and possible curtailment of US financial support. Will the Trump victory produce an end to the war and new peace negotiations? Will this impact Russian sanctions on commodity exports in the future? There is a lot that the market will sort through in the coming months. Still, today’s volatility is tied to strengthening the US dollar, pushing the general commodity market lower today.

Live and feeder cattle futures closed mixed on Tuesday, but a softer outlook is anticipated this morning. Yesterday, December cattle held a narrow range and finished in the red, while the rest of the market was slightly higher. We are still at a standstill for the negotiated fed cattle markets, but initial testing is likely to start service today. Packers will be looking to secure show lists lower on weaker beef prices, while cattle feeders are looking to hold on to positive margins.

Box beef values had choice yesterday increasing by $0.30 to $317.21, and the select declined by $1.92 to $285.24. These cutout values, though, are still holding at record prices for early November. December live cattle have now declined for six days in a row, creating lower highs since Tuesday's outside down session last week. Fund length last week was at a 1-year high. This is putting index funds in a precarious position. If they try to liquidate, December cattle could quickly be challenging support at 183-183.50. If that gives way, then we are looking at 180 for significant support to hold.