A mixed trade for grains to start Tuesday.

This morning’s grain trade is softer, led by wheat, as row crops had traded both sides unchanged throughout the night. With a lack of fresh news after the Chinese interest rate reduction on Sunday night, which takes time to take effect, the trade is now floundering. Support, though, is noted on row crops, which are still holding the August lows through last week’s weakness.

Bull spreading for corn and soybeans (the buying of the front more than deferred’s) has been confounding the Bears, and some of the strength behind the recent cash strength is simply this year’s export program is off to one of its best starts seen in the last decade. Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were stout for the week, with the overall shipping pace over 30% ahead of last year and well above current USDA expectations. The soybean shipping pace is not quite as brisk, though it is interesting to note the aggressive nature at which China is taking beans this year. Though the overall purchase pace by China is lower than last year, they have shipped more beans in the first month and a half of the marketing year.

Currently, it appears that offers out of South America will continue to dry up, with thoughts that Brazil won’t have a significant number of soybeans to offer into the world market until at least February. Offers out of Argentina are starting to become non-existent, and farmers have made the necessary sales to cover their inputs and will now wait to sell until they need cash or feel more confident in the potential of the crops they are currently planting. Corn offers out of the EU and Ukraine are difficult to come by as well, as a slow start to harvest in France and the drought in Eastern Europe and Ukraine cut into production. Quality issues have been reported out of Ukraine and surrounding areas, with a high presence of aflatoxins reported.

Yesterday, the NASS reported that 81% of the soybeans were harvested through Sunday, and 65% of the corn crop was out of the field. That’s against an estimate of 61% for corn. For the winter wheat crop, it is reported that 74% of the crop is planted, with 46% emerging.

Early estimates for the 2025 Russian wheat harvest are out from several private Russian analysts. IKAR sees the 25 Russian crop in a range of 80-85 MMTs, with Sovecon, who is more precise in pegging the harvest using a number of 80.1 MMTs. Amid smaller carry-in supplies, both estimates could drop the 2025/26 Russian wheat exports to 39-41 MMTs, which would imply greater 25 supply importance out of the EU, US, Australian, Canadian, and Argentine wheat production. There is tightening world wheat market numbers heading our way for the 2025/26 wheat crop, which is in direct contrast to the building of soybean supplies and ending of stocks.

Daily showers continue to fall across N and C Brazil, while Argentine rainfall looks to run above normal, with two potent shower chances over the next 10 days. South American high temperatures will range from 80s to lower 90s across N Brazil and 70s and 80s across Argentina. The temperatures are a few degrees below seasonal averages.

Live and feeder cattle futures weekend on Monday in quiet trade with a steady outlook offered for this morning. Funds are heavily long now cattle futures over the last month and during this period, December cattle have spent most of the month within a $2.00 range of $186-188. The October COF report will be released on Friday, and a strong jump in this week’s cash trade is needed to support a rally ahead of Friday’s report. This week's initial asking price is starting out $2 higher, near $190. The negotiated volume last week was 14,000 heads later, with the Packers buying 78,941 heads. 60,495 were purchased for 1-14 day delivery and 18,446 for 15-30 day delivery.

Dress steer sales last week were in a $8 range, with forward contracts sales at the top of the range at $303, while negotiated grid and negotiated sales were at $296. Cattle charts beginning to have a heavy look to them, and when typically, you would see a surge in price after a mild correction, we are not witnessing that. With such heavy longs again from the index side, volatility will increase if the cash trade is losing steam.