China lowered its prime lending rate by .25% overnight.

Grains started softer in the Sunday night session but firmed overnight as the Peoples Bank of China lowered its prime lending rate by .25% to 3.1% for a one-year loan and 3.6% for a five-year loan. This overnight boosted gold, silver, and crude oil as the first sign that China is striving for greater economic growth amid its ongoing poor consumer demand.

Friday's commitment of traders report showed that the index funds quickly abandoned their one week of long grain commodities, having gone long for the first time since June 2023, and have now flipped back to being short. Whether they build this short before the elections is unknown, but it shows their unwillingness to build length in the commodity sector with strength in the US dollar apparent and fears aligned in the Trump Trade at the forefront of the Algo mindset.

Ohio Representative Mike Carey is asking fellow legislators to extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blenders credit for another year since the US treasury has failed to act on 40 5Z. Kerry argues that the Blenders Credit will help create new jobs and enhance America’s energy security. However, the credit extension would also continue massive imports of biodiesel into the US, which amount to 2.1 Million gallons per day.

Brazil’s AgRural estimates that Brazilian farmers have planted 18% of their 2024 soybean crop, the slowest pace since 2020/21. South American rain shows daily chances occurring in the northern and central areas, but areas for the next two weeks with heavy rainfall greater than normal 6.00″ are offered for the province of Sao Paulo. The Brazilian monsoon is an overachiever for the next two weeks, offering the soybean crop's fast spring panting.

Midwest corn and soybean harvest pushed ahead rapidly over the weekend, and along with this week’s dry and warm weather, soybean harvest is nearing completion. Soybean harvest is estimated at 85-88% completed, with corn near 60% through Sunday. The last 20% of the US corn harvest is anticipated to strain US storage capabilities, and cash-based bids will remain depressed. Soybean basis levels have gained on the slowed harvest movement, but the basis gain is not expected to last beyond mid-November if we continue to see lackluster Chinese import demand. US export soybean inspection last week was the largest in the year at over 80 million Bu.

Last week, it was a lower trade for live and feeder cattle, but a steady outlook is anticipated for this morning’s start. Last week, both markets were lower but well above early-week lows by the close. December cattle futures settled below last week’s cash activity at 187.10.the cash trade was steady/higher in all areas with live sales in the north $1 higher at $188, and dressed sales were steady to $4 higher at $296-300. Meanwhile, live trade in the South also picked up $1 at $188. Live prices in all regions were up $8 from the early September lows, but the recovery has been labored. This week’s early outlook for the cash trade steady.

Box beef values were sharply higher on the week, lifting the estimated slaughter margins to a five-week high. The choice gained $9.43, and select jumped $5.48/CWT higher. The Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week ending October 15, the funds had bought another 8703 live cattle contracts against commercial selling of 4848. In the last four weeks, funds have acquired 47,398 contracts of length which is the most since November 2019 and the fifth largest on record.