Russia to raise export tax October 16.

This morning’s grain trade is mainly firm, with wheat retesting yesterday’s highs on news that the Russian government’s meeting with grain exports resulted in a 41% hike in the country’s wheat export tax from $14/MT to $20, which takes effect October 16. The record pace of Russian wheat exports along with private Russian crop estimates moving down towards 80 MMTs versus the USDA’s 83, suggests Russian shipments will be forced to levels below last year for December forward.

The grain trade is poised for today’s WASDE and October crop production estimates. Most of the attention will be focused on the yield adjustments, with average guesses anticipating a corn yield near 183.2 and soybeans at 53 BPA.

Exporter corn FOB premiums continue to rally in the spot Ukrainian market. This morning a.m. offers are at $1.45-1.48/Bu over December Chicago versus Gulf basis quotes at $1 point one to-1.14. This is abnormally high for Ukraine for harvest positions, which would suggest the market is working to shift demand away from itself to other origins. Ukraine's supply/price issue is compounded by the lack of harvest progress in W Europe due to the excessive rain. Just 6% of the French harvest has been gathered as of this week, when normally the French corn harvest would be 40% complete by mid-October. Another round of soaking rain is forecasted there in the 6-10 day window. Meanwhile, in Argentina, FOB premiums continue to score new seasonal highs, making US corn highly competitive in Asia for autumn/winter delivery.

Meaningful South American precept month Thursday was confined to the south of E Paraguay and pockets in southern Matto Grosso do Sul, where totals ranged from .10-1.50″. The spread of humidity is hinting at the arrival of the wet season, but builds in soil moisture this week have been highly regional in nature as high temps remain in the upper 90s. Confidence remains at a regular pattern for rain to start to arrive in the north in Matto Grosso beginning Monday.

The US weather forecast remains consistent, projecting another 7-8 days of complete dryness in all areas before possible rain chances arrive in areas for the E Plains/W Midwest. Confidence is low on the placement and intensity of rainfall for October 19-20, but the best performing forecast features an event in each run over the last 24 hours. E Kansas and W Iowa are favored with totals of 1 inch plus. NOAA’s November climate guidance is warmer than normal and mostly dry for the Midwest.

Another higher day yesterday for live and feeder cattle futures, with October cattle gaining nearly $1 to mark the highest close in a year, while December marked the best gains for the day and a 3-month high. October live cattle is the highest-priced contract on the board, except April 2025, which is $0.18 higher. Cash trade got underway with sales in the South at $187, which was $1 higher for the week, while dressed trade in the North was steady with last week at $296. Similar price trends are expected today. Box beef values extended their weekly gains on Thursday, with Choice picking up $1.77 to $309.95 while Select gained $2.10 to $290.73. Choice beef is up more than $7 on the week, and Select is picked up $3.

Yesterday’s Consumer Price Report showed that retail beef prices in September corrected 1% from the record high in August. However, compared to a year ago, retail beef was $2.27/pound higher at $8.41/pound.