A firm grain trade this morning's follows China's return from Autumn Festival.

This morning’s grain trade is firm, with soybeans leading the way as China has returned from holiday, and when the 8 PM trading got underway, a sharp boost in soybean prices materialized buying out of the Far East.

It’s a macro-economic day with the Federal Reserve today, and it is anticipated that lending rates will be cut by either 25-.50% at 1 PM. Remember that the commodity bear market started in May 2022 when the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates to fight inflation. That’s when managed money turned away from being long grains and eventually worked themselves short. Over the past month, the index traders have been reducing their short position weekly, buying into farmer selling to help limit sharp spikes.

There is talk that Sen. Moran, Republican from Kansas, is looking to add producer assistance to any Farm Bill Extension due to low prices. Whether it occurs or not is likely tied to election-year politics.

La Niña has now been confirmed overnight as the 30-day net change threshold was negative .67°C in the Nino through the 3-4 region. The models have shown a strengthening of La Niña for most of September, and the confirmation that it is now in existence should fall across the various commodity markets. This La Niña should allow rains to return to Northern Brazil during October while producing dryness across Argentina and Southern Brazil in the first quarter of 2025.

The weather forecast for northern Brazil is arid for another 10 days, but there are hints of rain in early October. Extreme heat prevails with high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s. With La Niña forming, there should be some better chance of rain totals by mid-October.

It’s been reported that FranceAgriMer cut its estimate of French wheat exports outside of the 27-member block to just 4.5 MMTs, down sharply from 7.5 MMTs in July. Others will make up for the loss of 3.5 MMTs. Excessive rainfall besieged French wheat throughout most of the 2024 growing season.

The Federal Reserve will make an announcement on interest rates of either .25% or .50% on the cut in the Fed funds rate, which will occur at 1:00 p.m. CT. This can create volatility in the US dollar, affecting the closing grain trade.

Rain is forecasted for the Midwest after Friday, but the rains will follow a month of extreme dryness that has produced a flash drought. The rain will have limited crop benefits as the corn and soybean crops have been pushed to maturity. The benefit will come to the winter wheat, where seeding is underway, and germination will be improved in the coming rounds of rainfall. No frost or freeze is indicated into October due to heat across Canada as a high-pressure Ridge remains aloft.

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher on Tuesday with a firm outlook offered this morning. Fund buying was the feature, while feeder cattle marked even better gains on strength from deferred fat cattle prices. It was the best close for October feeder cattle in a month. Meanwhile, negotiated fed cattle remain at a standstill, but interest is expected to develop with early asking prices in the South quoted at $184-185, which is $3-4 higher if achieved.

Iowa State University released its August estimates for cattle feeding returns. Finishing a 750 pound steer slipped to a 4-month low of $96/head, down $222 from July and $162/head from a year ago. The average sale price was down $6.50/CWT from July at $191, while the average breakeven price increased by $8/CWT to $186. The estimated return on finishing a 560-pound steer calf increased by $10 from July to $208/head, as the estimated breakeven price declined $7/CWT to $179. October live cattle have extreme resistance at $180.50-182.00.