Turn-around Tuesday kicks off today's action.

This morning’s grain trade is firmer across the board as the US dollar declines to new lows. The US central bank meets today and is likely to cut rates tomorrow by .25%, with thoughts it could be as much as .50%. Chairman Powell is trying to pull off a soft rate landing for the US economy with concerns growing amid the uncertainties of the November elections.

Yesterday, the NASS reported that 65% of the corn crop rating increased by 1% to 65% good/excellent, while the soybean crop was down 1% to 64%. 64% of the corn is mature, with 9% of the crop harvested, while 44% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, and 6% is harvested. Midwest weather now has a minimal impact on corn and soybean yields.

La Niña looks to be ahead due to the latest ENSO updates showing it to be stronger, which will impact world weather heading into mid-2025. The World Weather Bureau has raised the odds and strength of La Niña forming soon. The impact will be a new drought cycle across Argentina/S Brazil and that Central US drought prospect increase next year. Nearby is the timing of the start of the Brazilian monsoon that will hold sway over grain prices as farmers there delay plantings.

Winter wheat crops are now trying to be seeded across the northern hemisphere, and unlike recent years, the seeding effort has acute dryness from the Black Sea to the western US plains. Meanwhile, excessive rain has produced flooding in central Europe and China. The relationship between wheat crop establishment and yield is loosely correlated. But crop conditions in the US and Russia will be watched heading into winter.

The northern Brazil weather forecast remains arid for another two weeks, and there is still no sign that the monsoon is paired to activate and shift West. Extreme heat prevails, with high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s. The combination of extreme heat and dryness is being closely watched into mid-October when it becomes critical to plant soybeans to garner a window for winter corn by late February.

After a firm run yesterday morning, live and feeder cattle prices drifted lower into the close on Monday. Cash markets are expected to hold out until Wednesday. Small numbers were reportedly sold in IA for $183-184, which was steady at $1 higher than last week. Last week’s uptick in the cash trade was a surprise, given the decline that has taken place over the last two months. The 5-area average live price gained $1, and the dressed price was up $3. Negotiated prices were the lowest for five weeks but were $1 above formula sales last week, possibly signaling a change in trend. Negotiated grid sales saw the highest prices of $301 and were $11 over formula sales.