Crop ratings influence overnight trade.

A mixed grain trade this morning with soybeans weaker on crop ratings that came in steady when a decline of 1-2% was anticipated. Wheat futures are firmer as harvest pressure is now in the rearview mirror. 85% of the spring wheat crop is harvested and 6% of the new 2025 winter wheat crop is in the ground. NASS will not adjust any wheat production numbers in this Thursday’s report it will occur in the final small grains report on September 30.

Based on crop ratings, there is a growing consensus that the soybean yield could still be at 53 BPA nationally, if not a bit higher. Meanwhile, US corn yields are on the decline, especially due to foliar diseases. Trading action looks to become more two-sided on the row crops into Thursday with report out at 11:00 a.m. CDT.

Lawmakers are pushing the Treasury Department to ensure that green fuel is eligible for 45Z tax credits, which starts on January 1, replaces the blender's credit, and limits it to biofuels made in the US for its domestic feedstocks only. This would also include Brazilian tallow, and Chinese-used cooking oil. The US ag industry is awaiting the Treasury Department’s 40 5Z credit decision not only for US produced biofuels, but also what US farmers need to do to have its crops comply with SAF production. 40 lawmakers sent a letter to the US treasury on Monday, and they indicated that the decision should be rendered prior to January 1.

China imported 12.14 MMTs of all-origin soybeans in August, as Brazilian supply ability and strong crush margins provide an economic incentive to push imports. China continues to import record tonnages of world soybeans regardless of the slowing economic outlook. August soybean imports are forecasted at 9.5-9.8 MMTs. Whether China is stockpiling soybeans ahead of potential trade tariff increases by a likely President Trump is unknown.

Hurricane Francine has formed slightly farther west and is forecasted in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Francine is expected to come on shore as a category two hurricane late Wednesday afternoon, with heavy rain and gusty winds pushing northward as the storm hugs the Mississippi River into late Saturday. Rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts are in the 2-6.00’” range. The rain will help refill the lower Mississippi River, but the abundance of rain and wind will lodge corn and soybean crops. In Brazil, the oppressive drought looks to worsen into late September.

Live and feeder cattle futures had a volatile session early Monday but settled sharply higher with a firm outlook offered for this morning. Early in the day, major technical support values from August were challenged and held, prompting buying interest in short covering that was swift late into the session. The early cash outlook for now looks steady this week.

Last week’s 5-area average was $181.18, $1.10 less than a year ago. This marked the first year-over-year decline since March 2021. A year ago, cattle price trends were flat into early November and then fell sharply into the end of the year. The market has already seen a significant correction in the last eight weeks. The bull market in cattle is old, and now it’s not just about numbers; it’s about consumer demand. With support holding on Monday, resistance for October cattle can be rechecked at 180.50-182.50.