Soybeans firm on world veg oil strength.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed. Wheat and corn are softer, while soybeans mount a recovery from last week’s selloff. European and Canadian rapeseed/canola markets are recovering. It appears that Canola put in a double bottom on Friday in response to the Chinese retaliation for EV import tariffs. Outside markets are positive, with crude oil, equity, and metals recovering from Friday’s hard down day on risk off.

Stats Canada released their major crop stocks this morning as of July 31, and wheat was at 4.583 MMTs versus an estimate of 2 MMTs. This caused Minneapolis wheat to soften on spreads to the winter wheat. Russian wheat crop estimates now exist in a range of 82-83 MTs versus 83-85 previously. Exporter balance sheets remain historically tight.

This week's major focus will be the upcoming September WASDE crop production report and the first published objective corn and soybean yield data. Yield ideas have been trimmed from early August, but the record national potential still remains intact as the timing of harvest, which will have an effect on strength in the physical cash markets nearby. Corn harvesting is estimated to have been nearly completed in LA this weekend and should reach 7880% complete in MS and 70-72% complete in AR. Our fits now expand into the principal Midwest by late next month. Corn and soybean crop ratings are expected to decline another 1-2% this afternoon after a complete week of dryness throughout the Midwest last week.

Another two weeks of dryness and much above-normal temperatures will be anticipated in central and northern Brazil. It’s now expected that no major soybean planting will occur until late September if rain starts to develop. Only in the southern tip of Brazil in Río Grande do Sul’s soybean seeding will get underway. Brazilian forecasts will garner more attention next week if the 10-day forecast fails to change, as 40-50% of the Matto Grosso soybean crop must be planted by October 15-20 to prevent safrinha corn seeding complications in February. Also, the timing of Brazil’s soybean harvest's arrival will be determined over the next 30-45 days as the crop is pushed into late February and extends the US soybean export window.

The Midwest US weather forecast is wetter for far southern Illinois and southern Indiana as a tropical storm works across the Delta and mid-South Thursday through Saturday. Tropical Storm Six will work to pause corn and soybean harvesting in the southeast, but any rain will still be welcomed following the drop in Mississippi River levels Memphis southward. Dryness elsewhere persists into September 19, and warmth resumes across the Plains and Midwest this week.

It was a rough end of the week for live and feeder cattle on Friday, but a steady opening is anticipated this morning with outside markets. Losses and feeder cattle last week were greater than live cattle due to the corn market confirming a bottom and putting upward momentum in place. Despite early-week optimism, sales were lower last week, as live trade in the North was off $3 at $181, and in the South, cattle were $2 lower at $181. The north/south spread has now converged even money.

Cattle slaughter last week fell 11% due to the holiday but was still 3% less than a year ago and 542,000 head. The average carcass weight was 851 pounds, up 3 pounds for the week and 23 pounds heavier than a year ago. Weekly beef production was just down .3% from last year. The commitment of trader’s report showed for the week ending September 3, funds bought 44 live cattle contracts against commercial buying of 1677 contracts. The week-over-week price change of last Tuesday in October caused cattle to go down $0.12/CWT.

Live cattle have major support that needs to develop at the August lows in the 173.80-174.50 range to hold our support, which would then develop at 169.50-170 00 if breached. Live cattle currently suggest another $6.00 slide into the end of October.