Friday's week close spills into Sunday night.

This morning’s grain trade is sharply lower for wheat and soybeans, with selling seasonal and chart-based weakness on Friday. Markets are closed on Wednesday for a federal holiday, and many question why, which creates a stacking of trades with two-day trends traded twice this week. The NOPA May crush report will be released today at 11:00 a.m. The estimate is at 178 Mil Bu with soyoil stocks falling to 1,750 Mil pounds. Midwest crushing plants are back online from seasonal maintenance in April. Last year’s May crush rate was a record set at 177.9 Mil Bu.

The eastern Midwest, central and northern Delta, and interior parts of the Southeast are forecast to be hot and dry this week. Wet weather and cooler temps are expected across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Nebraska and Kansas are forecast to receive some rain, while the Southern Plains are expected to be dry. Globally, western CIS crop areas will be plenty wet during the next 10 days to two weeks except in Russia’s Southern Region, eastern Ukraine, and western Kazakhstan, where conditions will be hot and mostly dry.
China’s property woes worsen as new home prices fall at the fastest clip in nearly 10 years. In May, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.9% from the previous year, the biggest decline since June 2015. This was the 11th consecutive monthly decline, despite China unveiling a broad real estate rescue package last month. Prices dropped in 68 out of the 70 cities surveyed by the government.

China’s Northern Plains drought is forecast to deepen over the next 10 days, with a modest relaxation in high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s compared to last week’s widespread 100s. Also, in India, the monsoons continue to sputter and hold across the southern half of India for another 10 days. The need for Indian rainfall is growing, which will impact oilseed production. World weather continues to be out of focus as traders have turned inward towards the US traders trying to see how they can gauge a trendline crop.

The US weather patterns reflect the Eastern US continuing under a high-pressure Ridge that produces extreme heat for another 10 days with below-normal rainfall. From Illinois eastward, there is limited rain forecasted for the next 10 days, along with high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to mid-90s, accelerating soil moisture losses. NW Midwest/N Plains will endure nearly daily rainfall chances with high temperatures in the 70s/80s this week. Excessive rainfall of 4-8.00″ is forecast to produce widespread flooding and yellowing of crops. The QPF 7-day rainfall pattern catches the extremes of this week with flooding rains in the NW Midwest crops. A 2-3% drop in good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans is anticipated could show up today in the crop progress data. A deeper decline is anticipated next Monday.

Live and feeder cattle moved sharply higher last week, led by a dramatic lift on Friday. Negotiated trade last week was higher in all regions, with live trade in the north developing in a wide range of $193-197, which was $2-6 higher for the week. Dressed sales were $4-5 higher at $305-306. In the South, the trade was $1 higher at $186. The northern sales were at record prices, while southern markets were within $2 of the record prices traded in March. This north/south spread has widened to $10 for the northern premium. This is the most since May 2022 and a record for mid-June. The five-area average basis narrowed $4 over June, right in line with the 3-year average. Last week, cash slaughter was 21,000 head, 3% less than a year ago. The average carcass weight, however, is now 42 pounds heavier than a year ago, and beef production was put at 8.7 million pounds, which was 1.7% more than a year ago. The August contract looks to test the March highs in the 184.50-185.00 range.