The grain trade ended the overnight firm.

After a softer overnight session, the grain trade ended firm at the close of the night session heading into the weekend, capping another week of gains. The grains firmed up as the US dollar tumbled this morning after the September jobs report came in softer than estimates. A weaker dollar supported metals and energies after 7:30 AM and helped firm the grain trade back up to the best prices of the week in the month. The jobs number only showed a build of 142,000, while 161,000 was expected. Unemployment is at 4.2%.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange held its forecast for the 2020/25 wheat crop at 18.5 MMTs, suggesting that recent rains have stabilized conditions. Be Ag E indicated that corn and sunflower seeding had started, while farmers worry about future rainfall events in a La Niña year amid the ability of leafhoppers to make it through the winter. Argentine corn seeding is forecasted to decline 17%, shifting these acres to soybeans.

This week’s grain rally has been mostly fueled by short covering. Seasonal price trends are shifting, with index funds and their Algo/AI programs fearing the dry Central weather. With the index headed back to 100.00, the renewed US dollar weakness is sending the signal that it’s not easy being short commodities at decade-low prices, and improving demand is now occurring. The wheat trade is becoming extended as Russian FOB wheat remains at $217, which has remained unmoved since late August.

Dry weather in the central Midwest will dominate the Plains, Midwest, and Delta over the next 8-9 days, with the change hinting in the 10-15 day window as normal rainfall chances could return. A few showers will fall across the E Midwest today, with better activity in the Delta/SC this weekend. Crops that missed late August rains will push to maturity to the detriment of yield. After September 21, rainfall will limit its benefit as the harvest will become more widespread.

Live and feeder cattle futures tumbled on Thursday, with a softer start anticipated this morning. Cash sales were lower in all regions, with live trade in the South off $2 for the week at $181, the lowest price since February. Dressed sales in the north were down $2 and $288.

The September International Trade report showed that July beef exports were off 2% for June but 8% more than a year ago at 258 Mil pounds. This puts cumulative exports for 2024 at a 4-year low of 1772 million pounds, but they are down 3% from a year ago. July imports gained 18% from June and we 27% more than a year ago at 403 Mil pounds. It was the largest import total since January and the second-largest monthly figure on record. Brazilian beef imports were 42 million pounds larger than last year, along with Australian imports up 29 million pounds, and also, we had seen imports from Uruguay at 22 million pounds larger. Live cattle trade are caught in a large range between 174-175 on the bottom and 180 on the top. Feeder cattle are becoming concerning of breaking back to new lows.