Soybeans and corn pushed new weekly highs overnight.

A firm overnight grain trade, led by double-digit soybean gains, took November over $10.00 for the first time since August 9. Light deliveries and seasonal price trends that tend to find a low in August or early September are turning up, with Algo and AI trader computers noting this ahead of the 3-day weekend. With old crop farmer sales dealt with and that pressure ending midweek, it now appears producers will look to hold unpriced 2024 new crop production for better pricing opportunities.

Deliveries against September contracts showed only 416 contracts of Chicago wheat, 6 of soybeans, and 4 of oats. Just 12 contracts were delivered for corn and 35 contracts for soybean oil. There are only 7,180 contracts of open interest left for September corn futures.

The EIA is expected to update the June US Biofuel Feedstock usage report today. The trade expected soyoil usage will expand while canola and yellow grease usage declines. Brazilian and Argentine soy oil bases declined during the recent CBOT rally, suggesting that October soyoil futures are close to resistance at $0.43.

Ukraine’s farm minister estimated that the total grain crop is down 15% for 2024 due to drought and reduced seedings. Since August 23, Ukraine has harvested a net 28.7 MMTs of grain, mostly 21.8 MMTs of wheat. Ukrainian corn harvest is to get underway soon.

Going into the 3-day weekend, the current short-covering rally will be met with chart-based resistance on corn at 403-404 and for soybeans at 1015-1020. September 12 is the next USDA crop report, and it is anticipated that the corn yield could drift from the August number on foliar diseases with farmers to allow the crop to dry down as long as possible to cut costs. South American weather is now the focus, with delayed plantings assured and the prospects of acreage increases being muted.

The Midwest forecast shows temperatures cooling and staying mild into September 7 before a warm trend returns. Today’s the last day of 90s in the forecast for quite some time, with Midwest temperatures ranging from the 70s to low 80s, which will be a few degrees below normal. The Delta finally has improved rainfall chances with 10-day totals ranging from 5-2.50″. The Midwest and Northern Plains will be dry with limited rainfall chances into September 14. Cooler temperatures are pushing southward and near to below normal readings prevail into September 8.

Another lower session for live and feeder cattle on Thursday, with a softer outlook anticipated for early trade today. August live cattle rallied ahead of today’s expiration while the rest of the market was lower. Feeders fell a little faster as corn prices gained. The cash trade did develop on Thursday, with live sales in the north off $1 at $184, while the dressed trade was $2 lower at $292. Live sales in the South held steady at $183. The northern premium cash trade has collapsed over the last several weeks, falling from $10 in mid-July to just $1 lower this week. Seasonally, the spread continues to narrow into the end of the year.

Box beef values showed a mixed play, with choice gaining $1.37 while select was off $1.44. There could be a bit of post-holiday support restocking, but September is typically a down month. As of Thursday, October, live cattle were $6 under the cash market, with a steady to lower cash trend expected to come. Major support at $174-175, if it can hold, will call on could be the cash trend that will develop over the next 6-8 weeks.