The grain trade starts Friday mixed, smaller corn crop in Minnesota.

Today’s grain trade is mixed with row crops firmer while wheat retreats from overnight gains. Overnight, it was announced that the Trudeau administration moved two and Canada’s rail lockout and to forced to binding arbitration with rail workers returning to work in business back to normal by this weekend. The prime minister is up for election next year, and a rail lockout would’ve caused economic damage to buildings and would’ve been a heavy burden for next year’s campaign. World wheat futures were firm on the news overnight, then declined as chart-based selling returned with technical damage of new contract lows. World wheat cash wheat markets are well above their March lows while US futures are struggling with bearish charts and row crop weakness, allowing them to breach those levels.

The Federal Reserve is meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and today, Fed Chair Powell will offer a summary of the meeting to provide guidance on helping the US economy and future rate cuts. The marketplace is anticipating that September will see the first rate cut in four years, with additional reductions into 2025.

The Pro Farmer Tour wrapped up yesterday, and they estimated the Minnesota corn yield to be just 164.9 BPA, down 16.4 BPA from last year, which is 9% lower. The three-year average for the tour of Minnesota is 183.06 BPA. Excessive spring rains cut into the Minnesota corn yield. The government showed a Minnesota corn yield of 185 BPA in August, the same as last year. So, there is some re-tinkering here on the USDA’s part, as they likely have Minnesota too high.

Meanwhile, a record-high Iowa corn yield of 192.8 BPA was recorded, 10 BPA above last year. The crop report estimate for Iowa was a record-high 209 BPA for August, up eight BPA from 2023.

Brazilian bean crushers are searching for cash beans with spot interior bids above exporters. Rumors abound that Brazil is looking to import Argentine soy oil amid a domestic shortage of their B16 biodiesel program. Present crush margins are improving in the hunt for domestic old crop supplies.

Forecasting models have above-normal temperatures and widely scattered showers for the N Plains and the NW Midwest; otherwise, a dry weather forecast elsewhere. It will take a considerable amount of time for everyone in the Midwest to receive needed rainfall. Overall, the pattern offers below-normal rain and above-normal temperatures. This is not the finish the Delta or Midwest crops hoped for. The best rain chances are in the week number two timeframe; otherwise, primarily dry Midwest weather forecast will prevail for another 4-6 days.

Live cattle and feeders put in a swift short covering rally yesterday ahead of today’s Cattle on Feed report. Short covering after such an extensive decline was not surprising given gains seen for hedgers and specs alike. Cash markets were quiet Thursday following more active trade that occurred earlier in the week. Sales in the South were steady, with the early trade down $were for the week at $183, and dressed trade in the North was $293.

The August Livestock Slaughter report showed that the July cattle slaughter was up 5% from a year ago, while the average carcass weight was 29 pounds heavier. Beef production was up 8%, putting cumin to production just under a year ago, but still a 4-year low seasonally. The cash market weakens from next week into mid-October when the trade typically bottoms out for the fourth quarter, and a rally gets underway. This year, the CME is pricing in a weaker trend through the end of the year, matching last year.

Expectations for this afternoon’s COF report at 2 PM are for On Feed at 100%, Placements at 104%, and Marketings at 108% because of two extra marketing dates in July this year.