Today is one of the most significant Crop Reports of the year.

This morning’s grain trade sees short covering ahead of the NASS Crop Report at 11:00 a.m. Strength in soybeans is developing as the Argentine oilseed crushers workers union SOEA started striking Thursday in protest of President Javier Milei’s proposed economic and labor reform bill, which was being voted on and eventually passed Argentina’s Congress. It is uncertain how long the strike will last. The CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grain exporters questioned the legality of an “unplanned” strike.

USDA will release its Acreage and Grains Stocks Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT. The Acreage Report will feature planted and harvested acreage estimates for principal crops, with markets primarily focused on corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. Because of the timing of NASS’ survey work, the data won’t account for recent flooding in areas of the northwestern Corn Belt. While the acreage estimates will draw a lot of attention, quarterly stocks data has a history of producing significant surprises, especially for corn, leading to big post-report price moves. The USDA will lower harvestable acres in future WASDE reports, improving expected national yields.

France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop at 60% good/excellent as of June 24, down two percentage points from the previous week. That remains the lowest rating for the date since 2020. The world is counting on a strong EU wheat crop following crop losses in the Black Sea region of 12-15 MMTs. The French harvest will be advancing quickly by July 10. Paris wheat futures saw strength yesterday and today on yield and quality results.

The drought in the Black Sea region that has been prevalent since April looks to worsen into mid-July amid the building of heat and dryness. This will impact Ukraine and Russian corn crops, with the important pollination window starting in 10-15 days. The forecast shows the return of the 90s and lower 100s with limited rainfall under a high-pressure Ridge. Ukrainian corn crop continues to have its production capabilities reduced even among lower acreage and less farm help to overlook the crops. In the past, Ukraine has been a large competitor in corn sales to the US.

The US forecast stays warm to hot across the southern plains, Delta, and the southern third of the Midwest on the influence of a high-pressure Ridge with numerous days of highs ranging in the upper 80s to mid-90s. Meanwhile, seasonal to below-normal temperatures are offered across the northern plains and the northern two-thirds of the Midwest, with highs in the 70s/80s. The heat returns to the entire Midwest starting July 7. The forecast of rains for the next 10 days across the Central and Eastern Midwest ranges from .5-1.50″ with heavy rainfall of 2-4.00, which is focused on the NW Midwest and the N Plains. It’s raining across Minnesota, Iowa, and NW Illinois this morning. Heat and dry weather are forecasted to return after July 6. Next week’s weather models will be key to gauging the prospects of pollination with or without stress.

Yesterday was another session where June cattle were explosive while the rest of the cattle trade failed to respond in holding gains and drifted to lower closes. Meanwhile, the feeder cash index is at a new record high of $259.04. The cash trade started this week with some light sales in Iowa, where live cattle sold $1-3 higher for the week at $198-200. Dressed sales were up $7.50 from last week at $317.50. The most significant share of this week’s business has yet to occur today, with the trade expecting a higher trade. Box beef values yesterday were mixed with choice advancing $0.48 while select was off $0.16. Beef exports were steady in June and averaged 36.5 million pounds/week, continuing its to trend below a year ago. Cumulative exports are down 4% from a year ago, and outstanding sales are down 5%. Export commitments are at a seven-year low but on track to reach USDA’s animal forecast of 2,818 Mil pounds.

Yesterday's Hogs and Pigs report had All Hogs and Pigs coming in at 101.3 versus an estimate of 100.8, Kept for Breeding at 96.8 versus average estimates of 97.3, and Kept for Marketing at 101.7 versus estimates of 101.2. Hog futures are called mixed to lower off of the data. The estimates we reported yesterday were off compared to the Reuters average.