Wheat leads the overnight price recovery.

After a mixed evening session, grain futures pushed higher in the early morning hours, led by wheat. The Egyptian GASC tender will be receiving US SRW wheat in its offers. Egypt’s unusually large three-month period of import interest has included SRW wheat due to the depressed pricing that has occurred in the past two weeks. US wheat usually does not make it to the Egyptian offers due to transportation costs, but the recent drop has put SRW wheat the cheapest in the world.

This Thursday at 11:00 a.m. is the US 2022 US Final Seeding Report. It’s doubtful that US 2022 farm acres will rise much, leaving any price excitement tied to the mix of acreage compared to the March 31 data. The NASS will announce their findings tomorrow, but one change from the March intentions will be the Preventive Plant acres in ND/MN.

The overnight Central US weather forecast is warmer beyond July 4 with a high-pressure Ridge over the Intermountain West and plains. Nebraska has been drying down quickly and entering a drought period. Heat looks to be a new feature for the Plains and W Midwest during July. The key will be how much rain falls from T-storm clusters that ride around the rim of the ridge. The West is favored while IN/OH are shortchanged. Dryness concerns look to build, and corn and soybean ratings are likely to keep declining.

Warm and dry weather will hold across the Central US until July 2, when model forecasts show thunderstorms producing point 5-1.50” of rain across NE Kansas, SW Iowa, and SE Nebraska from Sunday into Monday. The remainder of the Central US holds more of an arid weather trend. The models then struggle with the mean position of the Ridge in July. The EU/GFS models have an Intermountain West/Plains positioned Ridge to progress slowly eastward in mid-July. This raises the potential for extreme heat in the Plains and W Midwest in mid-July.

Cattle futures look mixed to weaker, with the cattle market drifting lower back to recent support levels, with August cattle needing to hold chart-based support at 132.00. or risk resurgence of the weakening summer price trend. June live cattle expire tomorrow, and our discount to cash. Early indications are seeing some light trade in the South that $137, but not enough to establish a trend. Northern cattle trade continues to be firmer in price. The cash market is expected to be steady to lower versus last week’s totals. The front-end supply of heavyweight cattle will stay plentiful, limiting upside potential in the near term. Beef carcass values were mixed yesterday and finished with choice losing 1.44 while select was lower by one .93. Load count was moderate at hundred 52 lows. After 4 July procurement, demand may become a concern going into the heart of summer, and consumers are struggling with high fuel prices.