Putin is back to making headlines.
Grain futures overnight had soybean futures pressing to new recovery highs to near $17 50 before retreating, while wheat futures dropped sharply from a steady start with Pres. Putin again continues to play with the world grain trade by keeping the possibility of Ukrainian grain flows alive. The Kremlin continues to suggest that Ukrainian wheat is able to move into the world marketplace, with Turkeys helping to sweep the mines and being the chaperone of the trade. Putin also requires NATO to drop economic sanctions that have been placed upon it. This makes excellent media headlines, but Ukraine sees Turkey sweeping the mines as creating a pathway for an amphibious assault from Russia from the south. NATO and the US will not agree to economic sanction removals. This creates extreme volatility in the wheat trade, with trade talks essentially becoming nothing more than propaganda.
Oil prices overnight surged to a two-month high as EU leaders partially banned Russian crude oil on Monday. This and China reducing its Covid lockdowns have created a new surge in pricing that started late last week. The EU’s push to economically isolate Russia further fuels inflationary pressures as gasoline and diesel prices are already at record highs, continuing higher values still likely at the beginning of the summer Northern Hemisphere driving season.
Rain fell over areas of the Northern Plains and southern Canadian prairies, further slowing seeding progress, with traders now looking at this afternoon’s crop progress data to define the potential acreage loss that will head to the preventive plant program as Insurance Revenue Payments are now in decline. Unseeded spring wheat acres will define the acreage over the next few weeks.
A few spotty rain showers will materialize across French and European crop areas in the next 10-14 days. Still, meaningful drought-ending rainfall is not evident with temperatures in the mid-80s to lower 90s. There is no diffusing yield potential that is in decline for the European winter wheat/barley crops.
The central US forecast has the trough/ridge pattern weakening in the coming days with the zonal flow of the jet stream to produce rain across the Midwest and the planes every 2-3 days. Extreme heat will be in the SW US and southern US plains, where highs can reach the mid-90s to lower 100s. A much warmer temperature profile is now forecast for June, with activity in the Gulf and tropics to increase with the season’s first tropical storm projected early next week. Other than continued wet weather conditions for the Northern US planes and the NC Canadian prairies, the forecast is non-threatening.
Cattle futures look to start the morning mixed with supportive and negative factors. With the memorial holiday past, the influence of cash trade, grain markets, and other outside markets will be key in price direction. Last week cash trade was moderate to active with trade in the north from $137-144 with most sales at $141, and dressed trade was $224. The South was mostly active and $136-137. Last week, the choice cutout increased $2.27, with select also increasing $1.63 as warm weather increased grilling demand across most of the country. The weaker corn market overnight could help support feeder cattle at the start of today’s session.