Ukraine corridor 3.0 is being tried.
Grain futures pushed lower again overnight, as for the third time again grain futures reacted to the possibility of Russia opening up humanitarian corridors out of Ukraine’s black sea ports. The current negotiations are to have exports allowed out of Odessa if Turkey would de-mine the port and act as naval chaperone. US and NATO warships would not be allowed to be part of this because of their backing of Ukraine and its ongoing flow of weapons. The Kremlin continues to state that to allow Ukraine grain exports to restart, the West would have to drop economic sanctions. Grain prices challenged Wednesday’s lows on the resurfacing of the news, but the chance of this coming together is put at less than 5%.
Volume is now starting to decline ahead of the three-day Memorial Day weekend, creating swift swings with lack of resting orders above or below the market, as headlines arrive. World cash markets remain strong even though futures continued to liquidate with Cash bids for old crop corn and soybeans soaring, as exporters domestic end-users try to take advantage recent futures price weakness. South American corn bases bids have risen $.20-.24 in the past 10 days. It’s the cash market that will likely lead the next rally phase in grain pricing.
The US central weather forecast has a potent trough existing in the Great Lakes with the jet stream to push northward over the next three days as a high-pressure Ridge builds across the eastern US. Left over showers would drop over the next 24 hours with accumulations of under an inch. Clouds will prevent high temps reaching above the 60s/70s. The range shifts back to the northern Plains and S Canadian prairies on the weekend with totals of .5-1.50”. Frequent light to moderate rain will push across and Plains and upper Midwest next week along with stalled frontal boundary. The extended range has a Ridge of high-pressure building across the South-Central US during early June offering more summer like temps with reduction of rainfall for the Midwest. A summer weather pattern has yet to develop.
Cattle futures are called mixed this morning after yesterday’s early strength gave way to a lower close. Cattle trade yesterday posted reversal on the session which was classic with selling the opening of a third day rally. Cash trade yesterday developed at $1 lower from last week at $137. Boxed beef prices had choice losing $0.72 was select was $1.29 lower. The load count was 102. Wednesday’s estimated slaughter was 125,000 had equal with last week and 4000 had greater than last year. Summer live cattle continue to target the $127-130 price range.