India wavering promotes Turn-around Tuesday.
After the initial higher start in wheat, grain futures pushed lower in the night session as turnaround Tuesday came into force. Overnight, India stated it would allow the 500,000 metric tons of wheat requested by Egypt to be shipped and other contracts initiated before May 13. This brought a round of selling that had wheat futures off $0.75 from opening highs before recovering moderately in the early morning hours.
Yesterday’s crop progress data from the NASS was viewed as slightly bearish, with the majority of the corn in the primary producing Midwest states will likely have corn and soybeans planted by June 1. Soybean progress will be near the five-year average by June 1. Planting does slow after Wednesday as widespread rains impact the central Midwest/Great Lakes, but the supply focus will also be on whether the Plains drought expands or contracts in June. Features a lack of precipitation across the Southern and Western Plains, and temps their cool only briefly next week.
The Wheat Quality Council tour of Kansas and surrounding areas kicks off today with yield and production estimates due midday Thursday. The tour will highlight what is well-known already and that the production potential is well below recent years. The tour will help determine whether the June crop report will refract another potential reduction of 15-20 Mil Bu.
In the central US, complete dryness is occurring except for a small portion of North Central Texas. Rain sweeps across MO, IL, IN, WI, and MI Wednesday-Thursday, but it’s anticipated that disruption of the seeding will only be regional. A mainly dry and slightly cooler weather forecast will be featured into the early part of next week. Additional rain will impact E Plains and the Midwest May 25-26 as a low pressure aloft SE Canada finals cool/wet air into the region. Accumulation is projected at just .10-.50, with locally heavier amounts possible in SD and MN.
Cattle futures anticipate a firmer start after finishing with moderate gains on Monday, with short covering and value buying being the feature. The discount of futures to the cash market helped support nearby June while feeder prices were lower but performed well off early session lows, given the strength in the grain markets. With June cattle finding support in the 131.00-132.00 range, an anticipated challenge of resistance near 135.50 becomes an expectation, with the cash market expected to remain comparably steady to last week. Box beef prices showed choice gaining 1.36 while select added 1.77 yesterday on load count that was light on 95 loads. This Friday, we have another Cattle on Feed report to wade through.