Just another Turn-around Tuesday for the grains.
Grain futures are on the mend today after yesterday's first of the month massive risk-off selling tied to the US dollar racing to the highest close in 20 years, along with some holes in the forecast allowing for some planting to get underway this week in some areas. Money managers chose Monday to cut their risk ahead of tomorrow’s widely anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The Fed is expected to raise the bank lending rate by .50%, but there are rumors that it could be as much as .75% which would be the most in decades.
US ethanol producers and soybean crushers are experiencing profitable margins while farm sales have dwindled due to the new crop weather concerns. China is on holiday through Wednesday and will be back Thursday with pent-up demand likely helping a grain recovery later in the week, especially after the news of the Federal Reserve becomes old news.
The NASS reported that just 14% of the US corn crop was seeded as of May 1, down from estimates of 17-19% and a five-year average of 31%. Minnesota and North Dakota stayed at a standstill where just a year ago; Minnesota had 54% of its corn in, with North Dakota 12% seeded. Illinois has 7% of their crop in, 9% for Iowa, with Wisconsin and Michigan at 1%, while South Dakota is 3%. With this week’s weather finally creating windows by the weekend, next week is guessed to be in the 21-23% range, rivalling 1993 for the slowest May 8 progress, which was at 17%. In the eastern portion of North Dakota, due to the Red River flooding, swaths of corn production will be hit with the preventive plant option.
The winter wheat condition was left at 27% GD/EX, while the poor/very poor category was increased to 43%. 23% of the US when we crop is heading, which means the upcoming rains will not improve production significantly but will stabilize it. The USDA will put out their crop guess on May 12, with the annual Kansas crop tour occurring the following week. Whether will maintain struggles forgetting spring crop seated in a timely fashion with storms passing eastward through the Central US every 2-3 days. Another three storm systems are indicated into early next week. In contrast, a warmer/drier pattern develops for the Eastern Midwest for the middle of next week and the Northern Plains and W Midwest holding a cool/wet flow pattern. The target for heavy rain after May 10 will be the N Plains/W Midwest.
After becoming oversold and heavily discounted to the present cash market, cattle futures mounted a strong short-covering day on Monday. Packers are expected to stay supportive with cash bids again this week north of 140.00. Beef demand has been a concern, with the colder wet weather pushing some spring demand forward. Box beef prices were higher yesterday and held their gains into the close, with choice up 1.77 and select gaining $0.26 On 79 loads. Yesterday’s weaker tone of the grain complex certainly helped feeder cattle rally sharply from oversold conditions. Further price advancing on the feeder, cattle may be checked today with grain values having stabilized overnight. June cattle run into technical resistance at 136.50-137.50 on any further strength.