Grains mixed ahead of the last day of trading for the week/month.
Soybean futures are higher with corn lower and wheat sharply lower for Kansas City, as the last trading day of the month gets ready for a weekly close as well. Performance by the corn market, given the bullishness of news out there, creates a sense of topping for price. Spring seeding from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley for the next 14 days will feature four storm systems producing excessive rainfall, localized flooding, and spring seeding delays.
Corn planted after May 10 and soybeans after May 20 endured yield drag due to late seeding dates. A lower close today in the face of such friendly news exhibits price exhaustion and a short-term top.
History suggests we will have yield drags with the delayed planted crop. With potentially 1 million fewer acres of corn, this has significant implications for the carryout of 2020-2023 new crop corn. Add to the mix that the Brazilian winter corn crop will also endure another round of yield cuts, heightening the reality that current pricing appears to be void of new buying interest at present levels.
The 2022 Kansas Wheat Quality Council Tour will start later than in prior years, beginning on Monday, May 16 and finishing Thursday afternoon, May 19. The tour used to take place before the May NASS Crop Report, with their survey helping define what NASS/USDA might say. This makes the USDA crop report harder to define and dependent on private analysts’ guesses.
The forecast remains consistent with the Northern Plains southward to Arkansas and eastward into the Ohio Valley with the 10-day rainfall of 2.00-4.50”. Three storm systems will cross the Central US over the next ten days, with the 11-15 day forecast into mid-May continuing an active weather pattern with more rain. Low-level flooding will be commonplace in MO, ND, SD and SW IA. Rains will be pushing into Western Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma by next weekend, bringing the first meaningful rain in months.
Live cattle futures put in a poor performance yesterday on a weak technical picture and are at critical support values that technically need to hold or risk further weakness. The cash trade was quiet primarily yesterday and likely done for the week with most of the earlier activity at $140 with north dressed cattle selling for $232. Box beef prices were firmer yesterday, with choice going out at 262.60, higher by $0.69, and select was at $251.06, lower by $1.26. The movement was light at 96 loads. The weekly export sales report showed net beef export sales of 11,400 MTs, which were down 24% from the previous week and lower by 34% from the prior four-week average. Feeder cattle performed better yesterday, and if grain pricing is stalling given the inability to race higher on the current friendly news for grains, then a low could be getting carved out for the fall feeder cattle contracts.