Grain values retreat overnight.
Grain futures are lower in the typical mid-week slump as the market starts prepping for the upcoming three-day weekend with markets closed for Good Friday for Easter weekend. News is becoming stagnant, with a wet Midwest, dry HRW wheat plains, and the war continues in Ukraine as well-known topics that have been traded.
With March data out on exports, the report is that China imported 6.35 MMTs of world soybeans which were down 7.77 MTs from a year ago. Chinese soybean supplies are tight and crush margins have recovered and are profitable again. This should likely spur new interest/demand in the coming weeks. Covert controls on Shanghai are starting to loosen slowly, but worries persist about slowing Chinese GDP. China has been booking Brazilian cargoes out of Brazil, but the current recent break in soybeans at the CBOT has spurred new interest for July/August bookings.
The Egyptian wheat tender closes today, with the best bid being German wheat at $437.69/MT. Traders will watch to see if the offer is accepted and how much tonnages are actually taken. EU wheat and India wheat will likely be the sought after supplies until they sell down into May, when demand typically shifts to the US during the HRW wheat plains harvest.
The Chinese ag ministry commented that its winter wheat crop condition had improved more than expected, where dryness had been a concern. Chinese wheat and grain prices are at record values with the Chinese political leadership concerned.
Snows fell in North Dakota, with totals reaching well over a foot in most areas with some isolated 2+-foot potential. This will push seeding dates back at least two weeks, with cold temperatures anticipated for a week before the snow melts. A few widely scattered showers and snow pockets are also anticipated in the Plains and Western Midwest, but most rainfall totals are less than .20″. There are some hints of moisture for the central and southern plains in the 11-15 day forecast, but confidence remains low.
Live cattle and feeder cattle had a strong recovery day yesterday with June cattle back above the 200-day moving average. Feeder cattle found strength in the rising deferred live cattle despite corn price elevation. Cash trade was a dollar higher than last week at $139.00, with Nebraska in the Western Midwest quoted at $142.00. Box beef was again higher, with choice gaining $1.36 and select rising by $.42. According to yesterday's video on charts, current technical strength via a potential C wave recovery could lead June and August cattle to recover into the 138.50-140.00 price range.