Wheat futures start new month higher on weather concerns.
This morning, grain futures have lower soybeans, consistent with yesterday's selling from the very stocks and acreage data. At the same time, new crop corn remains firm, and wheat futures are taking over new friendly leadership with concern is now on April 1 about the dry wheat regions in the world. The focus after the crop report is now turning to weather and dryness in the US plains, Canadian Prairies, Northern China, and portions of the Black Sea is now the first topic of new crop. Next week, Monday's national crop condition ratings for wheat are anticipated to be seasonally poor.
The Russian war continues to rage against Ukraine, while peace stocks are supposedly restarted again today, with comments from either side likely to have a headline impact on the trade until today's close. It's been rumored by a Putin ally that Russia is considering limiting wheat supplies and other ag products to only countries that are friendly to Russia and oppose the sanctions that are in place by the West. And like energy, Russia will be demanding payment in rubles.
Reuters News is carrying a story that widening Covid outbreaks in China are threatening fertilizer supplies across the grain areas of the north with seeding just weeks away. The transportation production of nitrogen fertilizer is said to have been significantly impacted. Like North America and Europe, will grain markets be closely following fertilizer/chemical supplies during seeding.
New crop corn and new crop wheat will be the CME price leaders in the coming weeks. With weather creating swift turns on any deviation from dryness to moisture or delayed planting regionally on heavy spring rains for the Midwest. The bullish demand story will continue to build for US soybeans as displaced South American buyers from the southern crop will find their way to the US.
Brazilian winter corn forecast is losing its rosy picture as upcoming rains stay focused on the southern portions of Brazil and Paraguay and far Northeast Argentina for the next ten days. Heavy rains fall across these areas while limited rainfall is elsewhere. If this pattern persists, it could affect winter corn production in central Brazil. Temps remain seasonal. In the US, the Central Plains and HRW wheat belt remain dry through April 11.
Live and feeder cattle were sharply lower yesterday following the USDA grain reports. Feeder cattle pace that the client has feed costs advanced with both April and May feeder cattle closing chart gaps left from Monday's opening. June and August live cattle stalled right at resistance near 138.50-140.00 we have been advertising for weeks. Yesterday's closes sets up technical weakness that could carry summer cattle back down to near 135.00. Cash trade was mostly at $138, with a few at 140. Dressed trades were a dollar higher for the week at $222. Box beef values were again higher, with choice up $1.35 and select gaining $4.88.