Wheat recovers from overnight follow-through liquidation.
Grain futures worked through a two-sided evening session, with the morning hours finding renewed buying in wheat as French milling wheat turned positive during its session in the early morning hours. However, further liquidation was seen overnight, on concerns that wheat and corn are not witnessing a pickup in export business since the Ukraine invasion and that the USDA may hold steady on its export numbers for the current crop season in the upcoming crop report.
Estimates are starting to come in for next week’s seating data, with averages now showing 92 Mil acres for corn, soybeans at 88.9 Mil, with the US all wheat seeding estimate of 47.9 Mil acres. This reflects an acreage forecast that is down 1.4 million acres for corn from last year, up 2.2 Mil acres and beans, and up 1.2 Mil acres in wheat. In the next several days, more estimates will be forthcoming to tilt those averages. There are four full trading sessions left before Thursday’s 11:00 a.m. release on March 31
Ukraine has already seen seeding on 150,000 hectares, which is 3.7 Mil acres of spring seeding for barley, corn, oats, and sunflowers. However, shortages of diesel and seeds along with workers are the input problems Ukraine and farmers are working with.
South American forecasts continue to favor the winter corn crop with rains of 1.50-3.00” anticipated for the next 10 days in central Brazil over Parana and RGDS. Any dryness will be located over far NE Brazil. Seasonal temps range in the 70s/80s/90s. High readings are anticipated with mostly good to excellent condition for the corn crop as it moves towards pollination in April.
Cattle futures closed higher on Thursday, with a steady outlook offered for the opening. This week, cash cattle have sold for $138 across the northern and southern markets. Sales in the Western Midwest were $139-142 dressed at $2 21. Box beef had choice values up $0.81 and select was lower by $0.65. This afternoon at 2:00 p.m. is the March COF report. Estimates put placements at 106% of last year, marketings 104%, feedlot inventory is 101%. The inventory number will be down from February but is still a record for the month of March.