Dec corn makes another new contract high for the 3rd day in a row.
After a choppy start overnight, grain futures moved higher with December corn again, making another new contract high. The Ukrainian Ag minister stated overnight that Ukrainian spring corn seeding could be cut in half if the Russian war does not and shortly. This means 7 Mil hectares of Ukrainian farmland will lay idle. The minister estimated that Ukraine farmers could seed 3.3 Mil HA of corn versus 5.4 Mil HA last year, down 40%, with normal yields producing a crop of 25 MMTs. (Down from 40 MMTs in 2021, 30 MMTs in 2020.) The winter wheat harvest is in June/July, and a ministry estimated that 1.50 Mil HA could go unharvested due to the war.
Brazil’s soybean meal and corn basis drifted lower on building exportable supplies as the harvest progressed past 50%. May Brazilian soy meal has fallen to $25 over Chicago, which is $40/MT less than the US Gulf offers. Brazilian July corn is offered at $0.80 over Chicago, which is $0.70/Bu cheaper than US values. Argentine corn values are coming, and $0.90 below US Gulf offers.
Egypt confirmed their purchase of 80,000 MTs of world soy oil for delivery in May. The coming Muslim holiday Ramadan and scarce supplies pushed the Egyptian government to make a large purchase. The soy oil is sourced from South America. This has supported world veg oil values over the last two sessions.
Reasonable rain chances for up to 3 inches of rain throughout the Midwest exist through April 2, with Nebraska, Kansas, and eastern Colorado potentially receiving 1.00-2.00 inches in that timeframe. The state of Texas up into the Panhandle remains dry through April 2. Keep in mind this has become more cotton in that area than wheat production.
For the second day in a row, live cattle and feeder cattle futures were lower, with a steady weaker outlook offered for the day. Feeders essentially drift lower as the corn rallies unless deferred live cattle values lift. Box beef values were mixed on Tuesday, with choice rising $1.47 and select was down $0.61.
NASS releases the March Cattle on Feed Report this Friday afternoon. Estimates put placements at 106% of last year, marketing’s at 104%, with the March 1 feedlot inventory at 101% of last year. The inventory will be down from February but still a record for the month of March. Summer cattle values look to stay priced under 140.00, which makes hedging between 138.50-140.00 when the opportunity arises a good prospect. Longer-term, fall and winter 2023 cattle are bullish.