Rain possible near end of March for dry southern wheat plains.
This morning, grains are mixed with wheat and corn futures lower, while soybeans rally. Initially, Wednesday evening, there were reports that India will have more wheat available for export from last year's surpluses and the promising looking upcoming crop. This morning's 11-15 day forecast model suggests meaningful rains arriving into some of the driest areas of the Western HRW wheat belt. Soybean futures rebounded on China implementing new capital measures to support investment and resolve risk around property developers. It's hoped that increased capital flows will boost Chinese soybean/grain imports and boost the crush pace amid highly profitable crush margins.
Headlines out of Ukraine fluctuate with the rising and setting of the sun. As of yesterday, Pres. Putin indicated cease-fire talks were at a stalemate, while Ukrainian Pres. Zelinskyy, in his national daily broadcast this morning, implied optimism the war would end by May.
Iran is seeking wheat, corn, soymeal, soy oil, and barley in a snap tender. There are also rumors that Egypt is returning to tender for a April/May wheat purchase. Brazilian soybean basis bids are rising again on strong Chinese demand.
Needed rains are showing up on long-term forecast models for the Central Plains, with Western Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle potentially receiving 1.00-1.50″ of rain in the March 23-26 window. Whether this is an interlude in a dry pattern or the start of a rainy spring season will create market volatility in the new crop positions into early April.
Live cattle were higher yesterday with feeder cattle firm, while cash markets remained untraded on Tuesday. Packers hope to secure inventory at cheaper prices while feedlots are aware of the fact kill margins that are seasonally bullish moving forward for be prices. Box beef values had seen choice gain $2.39 while select was $1.10. Consumer price data showed average retail price for beef in February was $7.26/LB. This was $0.28 under the record high that was scored in October, but $1.20/LB higher than a year ago and a record high price for February. April cattle have resistance at $142-143, with June cattle at $138.50-139.50.