CONAB numbers out and Ukraine/Russia talks fail cease fire.
Overnight, corn and soybean futures found end-user buying and were firmer awaiting this morning’s CONAB production numbers from Brazil. In contrast, wheat futures tumbled again initially, with the May Chicago wheat dropping nearly $1.00 before recovering in the early morning hours. The wheat recovery came on the failure for peace talkss between Ukraine/Russia for a cease-fire. The Russians are seeking a regime change, which Ukrainian Pres. Zelensky will never agree to. With May Chicago wheat having traded limit 10 days in a row as of yesterday, today could be the first day that a limit status is not attained.
Soybeans and corn reacted higher early this morning when CONAB released its lower 2022 soybean crop numbers of 122.8 MMT, down 2.7 MMT from their February forecast. However, they left corn production forecasted at 112.3 MMT, which was unchanged. The bean number estimate was within the realms of expectations, with spot soybeans challenging 17.00 in the morning session.
Active buying of old and new crop soybeans is continual, with announcements expected that China is buying for an active export program. The Ukrainian infrastructure remains a concern, and exports from this region are questioned about availability, even if a cease-fire can occur for months. New crop concerns are building for corn, barley, and sunoil, with 95% of Ukrainian wheat being winter wheat.
South American weather had seen rain of .5-2.50″ across C Argentina and SE Brazil. Otherwise, the remainder of Brazil and Argentina were dry. Near normal rain is forecasted to continue across Brazilian agricultural areas, including needed rain for the newly planted winter corn across S Brazil. Seasonal temperatures will prevail for the late planted corn and soybeans with highs in the 80s to mid-90s. Except for winter corn in Brazil, late planted corn and soybeans are nearing maturity in the impact of weather is on the decline. April/May weather will be monitored for the winter corn crop in Brazil. The most significant portion of the Brazilian corn crop is the winter corn crop.
After trading firm most of yesterday, the cattle futures ended up lower on the session. Cash cattle trade continued at midweek, with Nebraska and Kansas selling at $138, down $2 from last week. Nebraska dressed trade was at $220, down $4 for the week. A lower cash trend has now been established for cash cattle. Boxed beef values were mixed with choice cutout $.26 at $252.70, with select values down $.15 at $244.79. Seasonally boxed beef prices have bottomed by this time of the year but are delayed due to the concerns over rising consumer inflationary costs of discretionary needs. On the charts, June and August cattle have extreme resistance at 138.00-139.00 that will encounter heavy selling interest.