Grain futures ended the night session the opposite direction they started Sunday night. The sharply higher opening had wheat futures gaining $0.20, with soybeans $0.15 higher and corn a nickel before changing direction in the middle of the night. Chances of rain showed up on the GFS model for the 11-15 day period for S Brazil and Argentina, which caused soybeans and corn to weaken. At the same time, early-morning conversations from the Russian Foreign Minister and Putin agree to further diplomacy turned wheat lower.

While soybeans are under pressure from potential rain in the longer-term weather models, soybean oil is favored over soybean meal on spreading, as India lowers their import tax rate on crude palm oil from 7.5% to 5% to help with rising cooking oil costs. March Malaysian palm oil futures close at new all-time highs up 113 ringgits/MT at 5,817.

Bayer Crop Sciences announced its facing production issues with glyphosate. They sent a letter to customers declaring at force majeure, which is used to end its contractual obligation to the supply chain issues beyond its control. The announcement did not say how much supply was at risk, but chemical shortages are becoming a real threat to new production in Latin America and the northern hemisphere. Brazilian farmers are scrambling to find ag chemicals/fertilizers for winter corn, while North America and spring planting season will be starting in a few weeks.

South American weather forecasts maintain additional stress for the crop areas of S Brazil and Argentina into February 25. Chances of rain are indicated in the 11-15. But confidence is low. The GFS and European models have below-normal totals of .25-1.50″ inches of precipitation for February 26-27th. If this moisture misses, irreversible damage will continue to develop on Argentina's corn and soybean crops.

After setting new contract highs on Thursday and failing to rechallenge that high on Friday, and closing lower again, cattle futures have a short-term technical top built. The board is extracting premium with February cattle futures having made new highs late last week and cash trade no better than essentially $140. Cash trade was generally steady to a dollar higher last week at $140 across all regions of the plains, with a few tops of 141-142 being paid in the Western Midwest. Dressed trade Nebraska was $2 higher at $224. Last week box beef prices were down more than five dollars on choice and eight dollars on select. The choice cutout is still $43 higher than a year ago, and select is $54 higher. Both are at record levels for mid-February. This is what supporting is cash. Major support on April live cattle is at $143.00.