Grain futures trade lower overnight with soybeans reversing.
Grain futures are mixed this morning after a mostly lower night session that found technical selling from yesterday’s poor performance carryover the night session with low holiday volume. A resurgence in soybean meal buying helped turn soybeans around after overnight weakness. Monday’s rain across N Argentina and S Brazil were less than expected with totals of just traces to .40”. As a result, crop stress across Western Parana is becoming acute. This also prompted the buying of soybean meal this morning.
Iran’s GT see issued a tender offer 480,000 MTs of wheat for January/February. It’s expected Iran will secure more than the original tender amounts from European traders with thoughts world wheat tenders are also ongoing for Algeria, Iraq, and Turkey, with combined totals anticipated to reach over 1.5 MMTs. Egypt is also rumored to be in shortly and for a tender soon.
The NOPA will release their November crush report on Wednesday with a record total of 182-183 Mil Bu forecast. A year ago, NOPA members processed 181 Mil Bu of soybeans. As a result, US Soyoil supplies at plants are expected to rise to 1.9 Bil pounds, the largest NOPA member Soyoil stocks since April 2020.
Concerns will start to develop for Argentina and Southern Brazil over the next three weeks, with limited meaningful rainfall starting to be commonplace and rising temperatures. Recent rains were helpful but not plentiful. A more below-normal rainfall pattern holds in the next two weeks as the risk of a developing drought increases. As higher temperatures start to develop, more concern will be put towards the southern region of Brazil, which produces 40% of their beans as well as Argentina as La Niña is prevalent, but most seem to be ignoring it. The forecast remains stagnant with too much rain in the north with the South drying out.
Cattle futures had a volatile session yesterday morning from sharply lower open to a higher into the close on Monday. The cash cattle markets were untraded to start the week on limited demand, with trade expected to hold until midweek. Large low lists need to be acquired this week for the final Saturday kill of the year. The next 2 weeks are shortened weeks with holidays on the weekends. Boxed beef values were mixed, with choice beef a $1.32 lower while select rose a $1.40.