WASDA Supply/Demand report out today.
Grain futures are lower ahead of today’s USDA supply-demand report at 11:00 a.m. Expectations are for WASDA to raise the US corn ethanol grind and cut corn ending stocks by 25-50 Mil Bu. Soybean exports are expected to fall 15-40 Mil Bu, resulting in a large carryout stocks number. It’s also anticipated that the USDA will raise Canadian, Argentine, and Australian wheat crops while trimming US wheat exports and lifting the wheat carryout number.
This morning CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) raised their forecast for the 2022 soybean harvest to 142.8 MMTs, up 800,000 MTs from their prior forecast. That put the corn harvest at 117.2 MMTs, up 500,000 MMTs. Due to its dire drought last year, Brazil harvested 87 MMTs in its 21 crop. WASDA has Brazil down for a large 144 MMTs on beans and a corn crop at 118 MMTs. So the USDA is still higher on their guesses than Brazil is on their crop.
South American forecasts continue drier for Argentina, and Southern Brazil, with heat noted in the latter part of week 2. It will take another ten days of dry weather in Argentina for concern is to start to develop there, but La Niña weather trends appear to be fullest established into early 2022. Lite showers impact La Pampa on the weekend with less than half an inch of rain. Temps will be in the 80s/90s, which will accelerate moisture loss. A high-pressure ridge and fast flowing jet stream limits rainfall totals into December 24. Rains of 2.00-5.50” continue to occur in northern Brazil with the heaviest amounts and Mato Grosso.
Cattle futures traded lower yesterday, with cash markets remaining untraded. Asking prices are $2-3 higher from last week in the South and $144-145, while dressed offers in the north are $4 higher at $224. Trade is expected today, with cash expectations likely steady to $2 higher. Cattle slaughter at midweek is at 367,000 head, up 2000 from last week and 13,000 more than a year ago. $3.92 on choice and $2.59 on the select boxes.