Soybeans have recovered over $0.80 since last Tuesday's harvest low.
Grain futures are bouncing from their Turn-around Tuesday setback corrections, with Malaysian palm oil heading back to prior highs, prompting bean oil to have another strong recovery day. This, despite canola drifting overnight after having become extended to the upside compared to its vegoil counterparts. Soybeans are challenging their October highs, with the potential to push through buy stops to exhaust its current lift that is already 80+ cents in length over seven trading sessions.
Overnight, Algeria booked 800,000 MTs of optional origin wheat sourced from Russia in the $382.50-384/MT for immediate mid-December shipment into early January. Egypt is again bidding for world wheat, with its best offer coming from Romania at $347/MT for the first half of January shipment. Egypt is very short bought on wheat and will continue to need to buy large quantities every month as they had been hoping for prices to ease and got caught short.
Breaks in commodities look to be in the 2-3 day range limit, as fund managers are willing to buy that basket of commodities concerned with inflation. Even the soft commodities like sugar, cocoa, cotton, OJ are experiencing renewed buying interest lifting their trends upward. Of course, there’s always a reason for markets to surprisingly set back sharply, case example, Minneapolis wheat, but upward price pressures will continue into the winter, especially with the need for South America to produce record crops with fertilizer challenging to acquire.
Rainfall in Mato Grosso, Brazil, the largest producing soybean state, has excessive rainfall causing an increase in soybean diseases, with farmers reporting concerns amid the lack of sunshine. Developing dryness in Argentina and now excessive wetness for Northern Brazil is raising eyebrows. The overnight forecast subtracted rain from Argentina and Southern Brazil over the next two weeks. The Argentine forecast now has become largely barren of any meaningful rain into early December. Forecasts are now backing away from adding any rain into early December.
Cattle futures trading was mixed with live cattle softer while feeder cattle gained on the weaker corn market. Cash markets were mostly quiet, with packers showing limited interest while feedlots are pricing show lists at $134. The outlook in the midweek continues to hold firm for $1-2 higher over last week’s trade. Boxed beef continues to drift with choice value down a dollar 7 and select lower by $0.69. The NASS cattle on feed report for this Friday afternoon has the placement rates at 102% over last year, October marketing at 96% and November 1 feedlot inventory at 100%.