World wheat values do not participate in US grain price decline.
Grain futures stabilized overnight with wheat trying to find leadership from European world values, as French milling wheat was higher overnight and did not participate in yesterday's price decline. Corn futures traded stable while soybeans drifted back to yesterday's lows on disappointing Chinese buying. Tight global grain stocks underpin corn and wheat, with Tuesday's NASS data key on determining if corn finds a tightening carryout.
EU and Black Sea wheat stayed firm overnight, with German and Russian FOB offers unchanged at $340-$345/MT for January shipment. The current price decline helps US HRW wheat become more competitive in the world market, with Kansas eroding premiums to world values.
The soybean breakdown yesterday was swift after soybean oil and veg oil prices gave up their support, and soybean meal turned lackluster after its recent strong rally. Even though China has been buying through its state-owned firms (COFCO, Sinograin), private importers are more interested in cheaper Brazilian cargoes from February forward. Yesterday's announcement that some Brazilian beans could be available from northern ports in late December/early January created a technical breakdown in soybeans after having held up for two weeks.
After the close today, the USDA will release its 10-year baseline projections. In this will be the USDA's preliminary idea of 2022 USDA acreage matrixes.
Dry weather persists in all areas of the Midwest for another 3-4 days intense begin to warm on the weekend. An active weather pattern of precip across the Central and Eastern Midwest begins later next week. Precip totals of .50-2.00″ impact MN, IA, WI and portions of IN/OH next Thursday-Saturday. Harvest delays will only be regional, but overall a timely completion to the National corn and soybean harvest is anticipated. Daily showers occur across Central and Northern Brazil into the 2nd half of November, with rains returning to Central Argentina by November 14-15. Notice dryness is now starting to develop in southern Brazil.
Live and feeder cattle ended lower yesterday, as they are caught up in the broad-based commodity fund selling that was seen pretty much universal yesterday in the commodity complex. Cash cattle markets were quiet, but packers reportedly bid cattle at $128 while feedlots offered $129 for their show list. Boxed beef values again or higher with the choice cutout gaining a $1.73 to $290.22 and select rose $0.50 to at $268.22. Average carcasses are now coming in at 918 pounds, 13 pounds less than a year ago, but 8 pounds over average. Heifers are at 842 pounds which is 5 pounds under last year. This is helping support the box beef recovery in a seasonal manner.