Mixed trade to start Thursday.
After two days of sharp declines, corn and wheat short covered overnight, while soybeans are doing the reverse, having seen strength over the past two sessions and now weakening, soybean meal stalled at $340, with the disappointment of bean exports to China and current concerns for next Tuesday’s potential yield hikes coming into focus.
Crude oil recovered overnight from yesterday’s liquidating selling that experienced a price low of 79.66/barrel and is now higher by $1.66 to $82.52. OPEC is meeting today, and the intention is to stick to the output plan of increasing 400,000 barrels daily. This is ignoring the Biden administration, which is calling for an output increase from Russia and OPEC.
Next Tuesday’s NASS crop report is finding the averages for the US corn yield only up .4 BPA from October 176.9 BPA. The average trade estimate for soybean yield is 51.9 BPA that’s up .4 BPA from the prior month. Corn ending stocks are put at 1,480 Mil Bu, down 20 million from October, with soybeans at 362 Mil Bu, up 42 Mil Bu.
Dry weather dominates the Central US and most of Canada now through November 11 under a high-pressure ridge. After that, temperatures will begin a warming trend that persists into mid-November. Highs in the 50s area rains return to the Indiana/Ohio November 12-13th the potential of .25-1.00”.
South American forecast for Northern and Central Brazil have an active weather pattern with 10-day rainfall totals exceeding 5.00”. Some areas could witness as much as 8.00” of rain. Showers also impact Argentina and Southern Brazil with totals of .5-2.00”. Argentine forecasts show regular showers every 3-4 days, which will boost new crop potential.
Cattle futures pushed sharply higher again yesterday following the strong cash trade that developed. Strength in live cattle prices and the further correction corn extended recovery for feeder cattle. On Wednesday, cash trade reports were light, but like Tuesday, when cattle sold in Texas and Kansas were $2-4 higher for the last week at $128. There is still more business to be done today in the higher trend is expected to hold. Yesterday choice cutout gained $1.11, and select rose $1.59.