First notice day for November soybeans is Friday.
Grain futures are mixed a mostly lower this morning, with first notice day for November soybeans on Friday. Corn is pausing along with wheat after yesterday’s spectacular run, while soybeans try to find stability from the weakness experienced from yesterday’s high. The concern with soybeans is that the November 9 NASS crop production report will push a bean yield to 52 BPA, with a cut in demand that could drive ending stocks to 400 Mil Bu. That would be a bearish surprise and why soybeans can’t seem to break to the upside without any swift Chinese daily buying interest.
Russia’s Ag minister cut the estimate of the Russian 2021 grain crop to 123 MMTs from 127.4 MMTs in September. However, Russia does not itemize grain breakdown within that estimate, leaving the trading world guessing on the size of the 2021 Russian wheat harvest.
China, believing it is dominant now, is calling for the removal of large Ag subsidies and the rest of the world under the WTO. This occurred following US demand last week that China dismantles its industrial states of the program. Of course, nothing will happen, but the WTO has become a platform or argument of various state subsidies.
An elongated front is resting across the Central US with showers-storms noted for the Delta northward into the Lake States this morning. The rain/wind will be pushing east over the next 36 hours with rainfall totals from .25-1.50”. The additional rainfall will further delay harvest. In addition, progressively cooler Canadian air will be drawn southward, which looks to keep evaporation rates low into next week.
Cattle futures closed firm yesterday with feeder cattle struggling on the higher corn market. Cash markets in the plains were active, with cattle in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas selling for $126, which was up a dollar better than Tuesday and $2 higher than last week. Active trade in the Western Midwest was quoted at $126-127, also $2 higher for the week. The prices in Texas and Kansas are now the highest prices since April 2019, on Nebraska and the Western Midwest or just under the summer highs. Boxed beef values corrected on Wednesday with choice down $1.13 and select was $0.85 lower.