Grain futures continue their post crop report rally.
Grain futures pushed higher overnight, with corn and wheat exceeding Tuesday's highs, providing more evidence that the Friday, September 10 crop report low is giving the appearance of a harvest low, with end-user buying evident. Expanding US export demand for corn/soybeans, stout spot cash market bids, and disappointing early corn yield results offered bullish fundamental info. Midwest corn harvested yield data is disappointing, with record yields only reported on fields that applied fungicide on multiple occasions. Otherwise, early yields are below producer expectations.
Cargill Westwego confirmed that electrical power had been restored and that their elevator was again loading boats for export. Cargill also confirmed that its structurally damaged Reserve elevator has power, and it is looking at phasing a reopening without specific dates as damage is still being assessed. The US Gulf continues to reopen with CIF values rising on new demand.
Today the NOPA will release its August Member Crush Report. Estimates have the August NOPA crush rate at 155 Mil Bu with soyoil stocks at 1,554 Mil pounds. The report will help to statistically clear up the 2020/21 US soybean balance sheet ahead of the coming NASS September 1st Stocks Report on September 30.
Russian harvest reports show this year's yields are at a 6-year low. This suggests USDA's projection could be 1-2 MMT too high. As of September 14, Russia had harvested 70.7 MMT of wheat. The cumulative yield averaged 2.75 MT/HA. About 89% of Russia's wheat area had been harvested. A year ago, 82% of the wheat area had been harvested, and yields averaged 3.11 MT/HA.
The Argentine Grain Exchange (BAGE) estimated 2022 Argentine corn production at a record 55 MMTs while soybean production slides to 44 MMTs as farmers seed more corn acres (17.5 Mil acres) while soy seedings slide to 40.6 Mil acres. La Nina continues to build, and Argentine farmers see corn as better in battling this ocean/weather phenomena as there is the flexibility to seed their crop in December to withstand early season dryness better. The Brazilian rainy season shows no evidence of starting. The hot/dry weather will prevent early corn/soybean seeding.
Nicholas became a tropical depression late Tuesday, with heavy rainfall dousing the Gulf States. The storm will track slowly northeast and weaken considerably, heading into Friday. Additional rain for S Louisiana, S Mississippi and S Alabama will range from 2-5.00″, which will spark low-lying flooding.
The remainder of the Central US will hold in a warm/dry trend with summer like high temperatures in the upper 70's to the mid-90's. The heat/dryness will push crop maturity. A progressive weather pattern is forecast for the next ten days. A Ridge of high pressure elongates and progresses east across the Central US thru the weekend, with a Trough producing rain for the N Plains and the Northern Lake States late next week. Temps cool modestly, with highs retreating to the mid 60's to mid 80's.
Live and feeder cattle futures found a relief rally on Tuesday, as news that fire damage to the Grand Island JBS plant was minimal and that the facility was able to reopen helped stabilize the market. Cash cattle markets remained quiet through Tuesday. Packer interest is expected to remain slow as the beef market corrects, while feedlots are looking at still fat packer margins and look to hold the line this week. NASS will release the September Cattle on Feed report next week. Strong margins kept feeder cattle prices elevated during the month, with the CME feeder index averaging $157.00, $14 over last year. Calf runs will enlarge in the Northern Plains's with calves typically marked for backgrounding over the winter into the new year going to the market this fall.