USDA Crop Production report out today.
Grain futures experienced a mostly firm overnight session after becoming severely oversold ahead of today's September USDA crop report out at 11 AM CT. Progress in restoring the US Gulf export capacity is quickly coming into place. ADM announced that it will restart two export facilities (Ama and Reserve) by the end of the month, while damage at their Destrehan facility will take a few weeks longer. ADM said it has already started loading export shipments with its mid-stream equipment on the lower Miss River. Other US exporters are also reopening or close to reopening, which has helped US Gulf CIF/FOB trade return. Zennoh and Bunge are either reopening or close to reopening as the Mississippi export channel restarts from the crippling blow offered by hurricane Ida.
The USDA will release its September Crop Report at 11 AM CT today. The report has become the most important of the autumn as NASS incorporates FSA data to adjust planted/harvested acres. NASS is including the FSA data based on the high percentage of US farmers that have already reported their program acres. Historically, it was October when such FSA acres were tallied, but their inclusion in September makes today's report especially important to longer-term grain price direction.
Overnight Pres. Biden and Chinese Pres. Xi initiated talks to help improve US/Chinese relations. Included in the talks were a broad array of subjects, including environmental and economic impacts and that competition does not veer into conflict. In addition, USTR is completing a US/China trade review which is expected to be announced in the coming weeks. This was the 2nd visit between the two leaders, with the last hour-long visit occurring in February. The trade sees this as a positive outcome for Chinese demand for US agricultural goods.
A below-normal rainfall and above normal temperature pattern will hold across the Central US into late September. A Ridge of high pressure elongates and shifts east across the Central US early next week producing much above normal temperatures with highs in the 80's to the mid 90's. A few lower 100's is possible across the C Plains. Dryness and summer like warmth pushes US crop maturity. A cold front knifes through the W Midwest late Wednesday/Thursday, producing a lite to moderate showers of .10-.60″ which is about half of what was forecast in prior days. The 10-day rainfall map is from the EU model. Soil moisture draws will be sizeable looking forward into September 20th. The dry weather will produce a quickened harvest pace but cause worry for winter wheat seed germination.
After ten days of lower lows and lower highs in the cattle complex, yesterday was a mixed inside trading session with a slightly positive close. Today's price action was seen in verse reaction of the corn market at 11 o'clock for feeder cattle. On Thursday, cash cattle sales were quoted at $124-125 in Nebraska, or $1 lower from Wednesday and steady to $1 lower from last week. Light trade in Kansas was reported at $123 or steady with a week ago. The boxed beef trade was again weaker. The choice-value fell $2.28 to $332.58 and select was off $1.72 at $296.45. The choice/select spread bottomed in late July and has rallied sharply ever since. The spread this week is at $36, more than double of a year ago and at a record seasonal level. This is reflective of strong demand and the lighter percentage of fed cattle making choice grade.