FSA makes an accidental early release.
Grain futures resumed the ongoing bearish trend overnight, with wheat and corn making new lows while soybeans continue to hold last week's lows. The bearish price attitude continues over the concerns of Gulf export closures persisting even though yesterday Entergy reported that 90% of New Orleans has power and remaining outages are down to around 300,000 customers. NOLA lights are being restored, but US exporters are still awaiting power to restart their operations, which reportedly is by late Friday.
Additional bearish attitudes were raised when yesterday FSA in a snafu released their September Farm Program on early Wednesday, forcing them to update the data to all later in the day. Total US Program acres that are being cropped/failed or enrolled in the Prevent Plant program as of September 1st were 255.7 Mil acres, 1.1 Mil acres more than 2020. The expanding use of electronic farm program signup and the rapid spring planting program has allowed NASS to update their planted/harvested acres total based on the FSA data in September. A few additional million acres of cropland may be uncovered, but with just 34,000 farms of 2.55 million yet to report, the FSA data is substantially complete.
Sorghum is the crop where NASS will likely make the most significant upside adjustment. FSA reports program acres of 6.95 Mil acres on September 1st, with NASS estimating crop year seeding at 6.5 Mil acres. It appears that NASS is understating US sorghum acres by 600-750,000 acres relative to FSA. Look for NASS to adjust US sorghum seedings up by at least 550,000 acres tomorrow.
Political strife is growing in Brazil with widespread protests and new roadway blockades by truckers sympathetic with President Balsonaro. The strikes are partially lifted this morning, but the worsening protests against Balsonaro is causing a slowing of grain to ports. The situation must be closely followed as a new planting season begins in several weeks. The Brazilian real has fallen this morning to 5.33 vs 1 USD. This could be why soybeans have held 1270 for now but may still get bumped ahead of Friday's data.
The Gulf load-out bearish concerns and attitudes due to Ida is masking tightening world grain supplies. The USDA will be the arbitrator of current negative bias now with production numbers running higher for Friday. This would be normal in years that have not experienced widespread regional difficulties. The Eastern cornbelt finishing rains never materialized in mass for August that the Pro Farmer tour implied was needed to get their lofty expectations. The FSA numbers now become less of a surprise and are already digested into total production.
A Ridge of high pressure holds across the West Central US, which will block meaningful rainfall from reaching into the Plains, Delta, or the Midwest in the next 6-7 days. A cold front passes through the W Midwest late Wednesday and Thursday, which produces a lite to moderate showers of .25-1.00″. The Delta and the E Midwest hold in a dry weather pattern into September 20th. The first 20 days of September will be record dry across the E Midwest/Delta. Reports are surfacing that top soybean pods are not filling.
Cattle futures have experienced the 10th day of lower low and lower daily highs yesterday with a steady/weaker outlook offered again this morning. Light cash trade was reported in Nebraska on Wednesday. Live cattle moved at $126 or near steady, and dressed sales were at $203 or steady to $2 higher. Light sales in the Western Midwest were at $203 or steady to $2 higher. Boxed beef values remained weak on Wednesday while the choice premium continued to swell. The choice cutout was down $.33 at $334.86, and the select value was $3.73 lower at $298.17, putting the choice premium at $36.69. The seasonal outlook for cattle is bearish into mid-October, and the market is now extracting large premiums on forward priced cattle on Packer's unwillingness to give up margins to pay up during the last several weeks of record boxed beef prices for spot cattle.