Corn and soybeans find stability.
Corn and soybean futures again mounted a mild bounce overnight, as there is growing hope that of the 12 export facilities in the Gulf that several will receive power before the end of the week. Slowly, Gulf elevators will be brought back up in the next week, but it will be months before full capacity can be resumed as Cargill Reserve fixes structural issues.LDC, further upriver, continues to load out vessels and was a buyer of barges in recent days. Hurricane Ida's damage in the short term shutting off export facilities should be digested now, and futures are awaiting the USDA crop report.
NASS's weekly Crop Progress Report showed that US corn GD/EX ratings fell 1% to 59% GD/EX, with soybeans rising 1% to 57% GD/EX. Both ratings are well below last year, which argues for the 2021 yield being under 2020. In addition, 74% of the US corn crop is dented, and 21% mature, with 18% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves. Also, when ratings decline during August, NASS yield tends to follow downwards in September.
Argentine fob corn offers are rising for panamaxes as the supply thins after record exports during August. World corn and wheat export demand are strong, it is just being filled away from the US. Argentina was anxious to export corn due to the 90-year low flow of the Parana River. It pushed out corn aggressively amid a worsening river flow and the rising dredging cost. The US will capture a growing share of world feed grain export demand starting in late September.
A Ridge of high pressure holds across the West Central US, which will block meaningful rainfall from reaching into the Plains, Delta, or the Midwest in the next ten days. There will be a few showers across the E Lake states, but this arid pattern shows no change for the next several weeks. A further draw in soil moisture is expected with the early harvest to be rapid. Top soybean pods may struggle to fill amid the dryness. There is no evidence of any frost risk for Central US crops into Sept 23rd, with the S Midwest corn/soybean harvest to get underway in a few weeks. Central US high temps will range from the mid 70's to the lower 90's or some 8-12 degrees above normal. This is a very warm pattern for the Central US. A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to develop into a tropical storm. The system will produce heavy rainfall for the AL/FL coastlines later this week. The recovery effort in NOLA is not expected to be impacted with the dry weather forecast for the next week to 10 days.
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures plummeted again yesterday on technical selling with Friday's breach of major technical moving averages. Even word of BSE in Brazil could not support local futures, and liquidation intensified. The early week outlook is steady at best, with $1-2 lower likely. The cash market looks to remain within a range of $118-122 in the coming weeks. The boxed beef market continued its seasonal correction. The choice cutout value was down $1.23 to start the week at $335.19, and select was $2.23 lower at $301.90. While both values have plunged in the last week, both are still holding at record seasonal prices.