Grain futures are mixed for the start of day session Monday trading.
Grain futures initially overnight, on Hurricane Ida bringing damage to crops in the Gulf states that are harvesting throughout the Delta, along with forecasts that keep the Eastern corn belt dry for its finish. Heavy selling in the September grain contracts on last week's rally ahead of first notice day tomorrow removed all gains produced in the row crop pricing ahead of today's opening. Cash markets carry substantial premiums for spot corn/soybean delivery of old crops before the onset of the new crop Midwest harvest. Gulf/Delta harvesting have been halted due to flooding produced by Ida. Domestic end users are surprised by their difficulty finding old-crop corn and soybeans at the tail end of summer. End users claim that cash feels tighter than the 1.1 Bil of corn and 160 Mil Bu of soybeans that are forecast by WASDE. This is something to remember ahead of the late September Stocks report.
Stats Canada data was out this morning at 7:30. All wheat was put at 22.9, canola at 14.75 and oats at 3.07, all in metric tons. The numbers are all slightly above trade expectations and so were deemed neutral-slightly negative. The Statistics Canada August crop estimates are based on satellite imagery, not harvest data. Additional crop adjustments will be forthcoming.
Egypt's GASC is seeking world wheat for the last half of October shipment. The lowest offer was for Ukrainian wheat at $304.25/MT. There were only 8 offers with Romanian wheat offered some $4/MT higher at $308.50 while Russian/French offers were higher in a range of $315-317.90. Egypt last secured world wheat several weeks ago at $294.99/MT.
This afternoon's corn and soybean crop ratings are anticipated either be steady to down 1% in the GD/EX category this afternoon. Over the weekend, the rain across the W Midwest will stabilize crops, but falls in conditions are expected across the E Midwest. Ahead of the start of harvest, it's unlikely that a strong rally can unfold until a disappointing yield trend is confirmed. Breaks will uncover end-user pricing amid US corn/soy being the cheapest in the world.
Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it will churn northeast from SC Mississippi into Maine thru the next 5 days. Along its path, heavy rains will drop with totals of 2-5.00″, which could spark localized flooding. Areas of the US Plains/Midwest that are not in the path of Ida will be dry with any heat staying positioned across the S Plains. The heat will break across the Midwest, with high temperatures returning to mid-70's to the mid 80's which is seasonal for this time of year. Rain chances return for the N Plains and the Midwest next weekend with rainfall totals of .4-1.50″. Wisconsin/Michigan will be dry as a front sags south across the Plains and the W Midwest. The extended range forecast offers a zonal flow with near to above normal rainfall and near-normal temperatures. There is no evidence of a frost threat into September 12th.
Cattle futures last week had a disappointing week with early strength Monday and Tuesday mostly reversed and eliminated near the end of the week, with small gains still being reflected in the deferred contracts. Last week, the cash cattle trade had cattle in the south selling for $122-123 or steady to $1 higher. Cattle in the north moved at $125-127 or steady to $2 lower. With the beef market topping and seasonal demand to retreat in September, the cash market outlook is steady to $1 lower. Look for the cash market to hold a range of $118-122 into October. Boxed beef values were mixed last week, but the declining momentum confirms that a seasonal top has been scored. The choice cutout value was up $2.8 for the week at $345.34, and select was down $3.01 at $315.52. Cattle futures likely formed tops last week, with rallies now finding willing sellers just under those high values.